12 questions the men's committee must answer heading into Selection Sunday

We finally made it. We're less than 24 hours away from one of the best hours on the sports calendar: finding out the 68 teams playing in the men's 2026 NCAA tournament.

Who's in? Who's out? Who are the 1-seeds? All will be answered before Selection Sunday ends. And then, of course, comes the fun part: filling out brackets.

But first, let's get inside the minds of the 12 members on the NCAA selection committee, chaired by Keith Gill. While most of the field is already selected and bracketed, there are still 12 burning questions that will be discussed ad nauseam in the committee room in Indianapolis. Let's run through each.

1. Are the four 1-seeds set in stone?

For a few hours on Saturday, there was a legitimate debate. Florida was comfortably headed toward the final 1-seed entering Champ Week. The Gators won 11 straight games to end the regular season, while UConn lost at a sub-.500 Marquette in the regular-season finale and Houston lost three in a row late in February. Then Todd Golden's team was throttled by Vanderbilt in the SEC semifinals, trailing by as many as 25 before falling by 17.

The door was open for UConn or Houston to make a case by winning a conference tournament championship, but both the Huskies and Cougars lost to 1-seeds in their respective title games. As a result, all logic points to Florida joining Duke, Michigan and Arizona on the top line.

2. Is Duke the clear No. 1 overall seed?

With Duke holding off Virginia in the ACC title game, the Blue Devils are on track for the top overall seed despite recent injuries to Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II. Duke is No. 1 in the NET, in the BPI, at KenPom and BartTorvik. And the team ranked No. 1 in the other three metrics is Michigan, which Duke beat on a neutral court in Washington, D.C., just a few weeks ago.

The Blue Devils have 10 Quad 1A wins (tied for most in the country), 17 Quad 1 wins (most in the country) and 23 Quad 1 and 2 wins (tied for the most in the country). Their only two losses came in the final seconds against Texas Tech and North Carolina.

A loss to Virginia could have made it a debate, and the Cavaliers made it interesting, but it's hard to imagine anyone jumping Duke.

3. Does Miami (Ohio) get in? Is it bound for the First Four?

Miami's perfect record came to an end in the quarterfinals of the Mid-American Conference tournament, falling to UMass for its first loss in 32 games. The RedHawks finished the regular season at 31-0, and the consensus seems to be that the committee won't leave out a team that went unbeaten in the regular season. And to be fair, their résumé metrics are impressive, with a top-40 Wins Above Bubble mark and a top-30 Strength of Record. Yet, there's reason to believe they could end up in Dayton.

Travis Steele's team does not have a typical at-large résumé. The RedHawks' strength of schedule is No. 340; their nonconference strength of schedule is No. 363; they have more Quad 3 losses (one) than Quad 1 wins (zero); and their best wins are over Wright State and Akron. Their predictive metrics are also by far the lowest of any at-large contender, plus their KenPom ranking would be the lowest or second lowest in at-large history. The committee sending them to Dayton to duke it out with a middling power-conference team is a potential compromise.

4. Does Auburn have a chance at a record-breaking at-large bid?

The short answer would appear to be no. The committee has never selected an at-large team with 16 losses, nor has it ever selected an at-large team that is just one game above .500. Auburn checks both boxes.

Yes, the Tigers' metrics are very good. They have the second-best strength of schedule in the country. The average of their résumé metrics hovers in front of most of the final at-large teams, while the average of their predictive metrics is in the mid-30s. They beat St. John's and Florida away from home. But they're also 4-13 in Quad 1 games, 7-15 in Quad 1 and 2 games and have a Quad 3 loss. One more win might have done it for Steven Pearl's team, but it seems like a stretch for the committee.

5. Does VCU need to win on Sunday?

With the bubble carnage earlier in the week and VCU advancing to Sunday's Atlantic 10 championship against Dayton (1 p.m. ET), the Rams would appear to be in a good spot entering Selection Sunday. But will the committee give the A-10 three bids if VCU does lose in the title game? The Rams' résumé metrics are more solid than their predictive metrics, and they have zero losses outside of Quads 1 and 2. Their issue is a lack of good wins. They played a good nonconference schedule but lost to tournament teams Vanderbilt, NC State and Utah State, then were swept by Saint Louis during the A-10 campaign. Their best wins are over South Florida and Virginia Tech.

6. Who are bubble teams rooting against on Sunday?

There's only one potential bid-stealer left on the docket, with Ole Miss' run in the SEC tournament ending on Saturday against Arkansas. That team is Dayton, which stunned Saint Louis in the final seconds of the Atlantic 10 semifinals and now sits one win away from the NCAA tournament. The Flyers will face VCU, which might have punched its ticket with its blowout win over Saint Joseph's in the A-10 semis. But the question remains whether the committee will award the A-10 three bids if Dayton knocks off VCU.

7. Did San Diego State need to win for the Mountain West to get more than one bid?

Friday night's Mountain West semifinal between San Diego State and New Mexico was essentially a bubble elimination game -- but it didn't necessarily mean the winner was getting a bid. San Diego State advanced, then fell short against Utah State in the title game. Are the Aztecs going to get a bid?

They're 9-10 against Quadrants 1 and 2, with a Quadrant 3 loss. They have only one win against the projected tournament field, and that came at home against Utah State. Their metrics aren't great, either. It doesn't seem like their résumé can beat that of Texas or SMU, but the question remains: Will the Mountain West really be a one-bid conference for the first time since 2017?

8. Will any injuries impact seeding or inclusion?

Unfortunately for the sport, most of the more noteworthy injuries from the past few weeks have definitive timetables, with Texas Tech's JT Toppin, BYU's Richie Saunders and Michigan's L.J. Cason all suffering season-ending injuries. All three teams have responded well without their key contributors, meaning none is likely to suffer a precipitous drop on Selection Sunday.

That said, there are a few more open-ending injuries that make things difficult for the committee.

SMU's B.J. Edwards missed the last five games of the season with an ankle injury, but the Mustangs say he will return for the NCAA tournament. Could that impact their at-large hopes? Louisville's Mikel Brown Jr. missed the final four games with a back injury after missing eight games earlier this season. He's also hopeful to be back for the NCAA tournament. UCLA's Tyler Bilodeau suffered a right leg injury in UCLA's quarterfinal win over Michigan State and teammate Donovan Dent suffered a calf injury in the semifinal loss to Purdue, but both appear set to return for the Big Dance.

Gonzaga's Braden Huff has been out since January, and his timeline is very much up in the air. Then there are the injuries to Foster and Ngongba. Foster appears unlikely to return soon, but there is more optimism for Ngongba.

One more potential injury emerged on Saturday night, with UConn's Silas Demary Jr. going to the locker room late in the Big East title game loss to St. John's.

9. How high can Vanderbilt or Arkansas rise with an SEC tournament title?

At the start of the SEC tournament, ESPN's bracketologist Joe Lunardi had Arkansas as the first 5-seed and Vanderbilt as the second. After Saturday's semifinals wins, Lunardi now has Vandy as the second 4-seed and Arkansas as the first 5-seed. Could either jump to a 3-seed with an SEC tournament championship on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, ESPN)? They would likely have to surpass Nebraska for that spot. Vanderbilt has one more Quad 1 win than Nebraska, and two more Quad 1 and 2 wins, with slightly superior metrics. Arkansas has two fewer Quad 1 wins and the same number of Quad 1 and 2 wins, but the Razorbacks don't have the metrics edge.

There's also the question of whether the committee will even want to shuffle the bracket -- or prepare a contingency -- for a Sunday afternoon game between two teams that could already be among the top-four seeds.

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10. Where will St. John's land after sweeping the Big East titles?

The selection committee has often rewarded power-conference teams that win both the regular-season and conference tournament championships, which St. John's just did for the second season in a row. But will the committee value the Big East in such a way that moves the Red Storm significantly up the bracket? The league is clearly the worst of the five power conferences this season, poised to land just three bids in the NCAA tournament.

Despite the regular-season title, St. John's opened Champ Week as the third 5-seed in ESPN's Bracketology due to a lack of nonconference heft on its résumé. The Red Storm went 7-4 in nonconference play, with their best win coming against Baylor. Their only wins against the field are against UConn (twice) and Villanova (twice). As a result, a 4-seed is likely their ceiling.

11. Which data points does the committee value the most this year?

The committee added two more metrics prior to last year, putting Bart Torvik's rankings and Wins Above Bubble onto the team sheet. WAB has risen in importance since its arrival, with NCAA vice president of basketball Dan Gavitt saying at February's mock Selection Sunday exercise that the committee tends to lean toward résumé metrics in selecting the field, specifically highlighting the growing importance of WAB. It helped North Carolina last March, as the Tar Heels received an at-large bid despite going 1-12 in Quad 1 games, but had a WAB ranking of No. 43. This March, a WAB focus could help Miami (Ohio) compared to another bubble team like, say, Texas.

Will another data point be the difference-maker this year?

12. Will Houston play in Houston?

This seems nailed-on to happen. The South regional takes place in Houston, but Rice replaced Houston in September as the host institution -- meaning Houston is allowed to play in Houston for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight if the Cougars advance. And that will still be the case even if Houston isn't the 1-seed in the region. Florida is likely the 1-seed in the South but could have to face the Cougars in what amounts to a home game.