Big questions for the rest of the softball season

When college football ends, we shift our attention to basketball. And when the action ends on the hardwood, we switch over to the diamonds. The hoops season is officially in the rearview mirror, and maybe the biggest series of the softball season is coming up this weekend, so if you haven't been keeping up with the goings-on in college softball, now's as good a time as any to start.

Defending champion Texas hosts power-hitting dynasty Oklahoma on Friday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2), Saturday (8 p.m., ESPN) and Sunday (2 p.m., ESPN) in the biggest current rivalry in the sport. Let's check in on the Longhorns, Sooners and everyone else.

How are the preseason heavyweights doing?

The short answer: just fine. Texas beat Texas Tech in three games in last season's national title series, while Oklahoma won four straight national titles from 2021-24. It was no surprise that the Longhorns, Red Raiders and Sooners began 2026 as the top three teams in the preseason polls, and they've done little to dampen the hype.

Heading into this weekend's huge Oklahoma-Texas series, these three teams are a combined 108-9, and four of their nine combined losses came against other current top-five teams (Nebraska and Alabama). They occupy three of the top four spots in this week's ESPN.com top 25, and Texas was No. 1 until a series loss at new No. 3 Alabama.

No. 1 Texas Tech (38-2)

RPI ranking: 11th (SOS: 67th)
Record vs. top 25: 7-2
OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) ranking: third (1.244)
OPS allowed ranking: fourth (0.523)

Tech's run to the national title series last season was driven primarily by the dominant pitching of NiJaree Canady, and the goal of last year's transfer portal recruiting efforts was to make the Red Raiders less ace-dependent. Thanks to the addition of UCLA's Kaitlyn Terry (15-0, 76.2 innings, 1.73 ERA), Canady has had to pitch only 92.1 innings so far (she was at 116.2 innings on April 7 last year). Meanwhile, Florida transfer Mia Williams leads the team with a 1.486 OPS and 14 home runs, and Southern Illinois transfer Jackie Lis has added 10 HRs (third on the team). Tech is the only team in the country to rank in the top five in both OPS and OPS allowed, though it hasn't faced the roughest of schedules.

No. 2 Oklahoma (38-3)

RPI ranking: eighth (SOS: 51st)
Record vs. top 25: 6-2
OPS ranking: first (1.400)
OPS allowed ranking: 27th (0.688)

Last year, Oklahoma's balance was a bit off: The Sooners were potent as always with the bats, but their pitching was off of their elite standard a bit. When Canady and Texas' Teagan Kavan quieted their bats in the Women's College World Series, they didn't have the pitching to keep up and were eliminated by scores of 4-2 and 3-2.

This season, their pitching remains good but less than elite. Their bats, however, have been almost unfathomably strong. During their four-year national title run, the Sooners' offense peaked in 2021, producing a 1.268 OPS and averaging 10.6 runs and 2.7 home runs per game. Their current averages in 2026: 1.400 OPS, 11.8 runs and 3.5 home runs per game. That is absurd.

Eight players have produced over 80 at-bats, and they all have an OPS over 1.330. Freshman catcher Kendall Wells has hit 30 home runs in 40 games. She has already tied the all-time freshman record, she's only seven behind the all-time record -- Arizona's Laura Espinoza hit 37 in 1995 -- and she's probably going to play about 20 more games this season.

No. 4 Texas (32-4)

RPI ranking: second (strength of schedule: 14th)
Record vs. top 25: 12-4
OPS ranking: seventh (1.117)
OPS allowed ranking: 20th (0.660)

The defending national champs began the season 31-1 but have dropped three of their past four, including a series loss to Alabama. There aren't any major issues here, though it's probably noteworthy that in their four losses, the Longhorns have given up a combined 39 runs. The offense is as potent as ever, with six players boasting an OPS of 1.050 or higher, but even though Kavan is as battle-tested as anyone in the sport, the team's pitching is a bit more vulnerable than that of some other contenders.

Is NiJaree Canady still amazing?

Midway through her senior season, Texas Tech's star pitcher (and the first seven-figure softball player) is 15-2 with a 1.29 ERA -- an average that drops to 1.03 if you remove a single poor performance against Arizona. She recorded her 1000th career strikeout on Thursday and recently got the first "golden ticket" from the Athletes Unlimited Softball League. She's in the nation's top 10 in ERA (seventh), batting average allowed (fourth), strikeout rate (sixth) and average pitch velocity (10th), and thanks to Kaitlyn Terry, she ranks only 116th in innings pitched.

In other words, Canady is doing just fine. Great, even. But if we compare her to herself, a few slight cracks form. Despite Tech playing a pretty weak nonconference schedule, and despite the reduced workload, she's walking more batters and giving up more home runs than at any other point in her career.

2023: 135.0 IP, 0.57 ERA, 4.1% BB%, 42.8% K%, 0.2% HR%

2024: 230.2 IP, 0.76 ERA, 5.0% BB%, 38.4% K%, 0.9% HR%

2025: 240.0 IP, 1.11 ERA, 5.1% BB%, 35.1% K%, 1.4% HR%

2026: 92.1 IP, 1.29 ERA, 6.6% BB%, 38.0% K%, 2.3% HR%

Canady is dominating left-handed batters better than ever -- her 0.459 OPS allowed against lefties is the best of her career -- but against righties, she has become more all-or-nothing: Her strikeout rate has risen compared to 2025 (from 34.5% to 38.7%), but so have her walk rate (from 6.8% to 9.2%) and home run rate allowed (1.7% to 2.8%).

Basically, your success as a righty against Canady comes down to (A) whether you can lay off the rise ball and (B) whether she leaves it a little too much over the plate.

Here are her pitches against righties in at-bats that produced home runs:

If an opponent connects on something, it's going to be something that didn't rise quite enough.

Here's the same chart for at-bats that result in walks:

And here's the same chart for strikeouts. Notice all the dark red (swings and misses) in two areas of the chart: up-and-in and low-and-away.

Canady can occasionally miss with her rise balls and fall behind in the count, and every now and then, she'll leave a ball hanging. But she's still otherworldly.

She might not be the sport's most dominant pitcher at the moment, though. There are currently six others with an ERA under 2.00 against power conference opponents (minimum: 50 innings pitched). Tennessee has two of them.

1. Sage Mardjetko, Tennessee (1.30 ERA vs. power conferences, 53.2 innings pitched)
2. Jori Heard, South Carolina (1.44 ERA, 78.0 IP)
3. Karlyn Pickens, Tennessee (1.54 ERA, 59.0 IP)
4. Jordy Frahm, Nebraska (1.74 ERA, 84.2 IP)
5. Canady, Texas Tech (1.80 ERA, 54.1 IP)
6. Isabella Vega, UCF (1.86 ERA, 83.0 IP)
7. Peja Goold, Mississippi State (1.94 ERA, 57.2 IP)

Pickens and Frahm are two of the most proven aces in the sport, and Heard was excellent in bringing South Carolina to within one game of the WCWS last season. But Goold, a Chattanooga transfer, has been a revelation for Mississippi State, and Mardjetko has given Tennessee an almost unfair 1-2 combination with Pickens. If you're piecing together a list of contenders outside of the big three, that list gives you a pretty good idea of where to start.

Who else is in serious contention?

Of last year's eight WCWS teams, six are in ESPN's top 10, and only Ole Miss is unranked. So many of the top teams in the sport returned loads of last year's production and reinforced their rosters. So did a couple of teams that fell just short of a trip to OKC in 2025. This year's race to the summit features quite a few teams that have reason to think they can win it all.

No. 3 Alabama (35-3)

RPI ranking: first (SOS: 15th)
Record vs. top 25: 6-2
OPS ranking: 13th (1.062)
OPS allowed ranking: third (0.509)

Patrick Murphy's Crimson Tide peaked early last season, taking a midseason series from Oklahoma but losing five of their final nine games and getting rudely brushed aside by OU in the super regionals by a combined score of 16-2. Maybe they're falling into the same trap this time around -- they just beat up Texas' pitching on the way to a series win, and their record is pretty obnoxious -- but they've been perhaps the best team in the country outside of the big three mentioned above. Their four-game series at Tennessee in late April is going to be epic.

No. 5 Nebraska (30-6)

RPI ranking: fourth (SOS: second)
Record vs. top 25: 10-6
OPS ranking: 23rd (1.000)
OPS allowed ranking: 13th (0.640)

Like Texas Tech, Nebraska was a bit too reliant on its ace last season: The Huskers reached the super regionals on the power of Frahm's arm but scored just two runs in two losses to Tennessee. They took on the hardest nonconference schedule in the country this season and went a combined 4-2 against contenders Texas, Texas Tech and UCLA. Frahm is filling a unique role this season: She leads the team in home runs (14), OPS (1.488) and runs scored (37), and she has spent much of the season as a reliever for freshman Alexis Jensen; Jensen is 15-2, while Frahm is 10-4 with nine saves.

No. 6 Arkansas (32-5)

RPI ranking: third (SOS: third)
Record vs. top 25: 6-5
OPS ranking: eighth (1.110)
OPS allowed ranking: 14th (0.641)

As the nation's No. 4 seed last year, Arkansas swept three regional games by a combined 28-5 but got upset in three games by unseeded Ole Miss in the super regionals. The Razorbacks' revenge tour is going pretty well so far: They have one of the deepest sets of bats in the country -- seven players with an OPS over 1.100, eight with more than 20 RBIs -- and their odd pitching rotation, with three players between 48 and 62 innings, is producing loads of ground balls and few extra-base hits. They went a combined 3-3 in recent series against Alabama and Florida, and they're on pace for another high seed.

No. 7 Florida (36-5)

RPI ranking: fifth (SOS: seventh)
Record vs. top 25: 5-5
OPS ranking: sixth (1.125)
OPS allowed ranking: 15th (0.637)

Call it Steve Spurrier-style ball: Florida scored 41 runs in five NCAA tournament wins last season but allowed 14 runs in two WCWS losses. Catcher Jocelyn Erickson, outfielder Taylor Shumaker and shortstop Kenleigh Cahalan all boast an OPS over 1.200 and have combined for more home runs (44) than strikeouts (36). But if veteran ace Keagan Rothrock can maintain her current form into May -- she's 19-4 and has cut her ERA from 3.24 in 2025 to 2.62 -- that could make all the difference.

No. 8 UCLA (33-5)

RPI ranking: seventh (SOS: 22nd)
Record vs. top 25: 6-5
OPS ranking: second (1.289)
OPS allowed ranking: 189th (0.851)

Kelly Inouye-Perez's Bruins trail only Oklahoma when it comes to home runs (111) and slugging percentage (0.794), and they almost never chase bad pitches. That's a bad thing considering that if you throw a good pitch, it's going to get pummeled.

Megan Grant (25) and Jordan Woolery (21) are second and third nationally in home runs, behind only Kendall Wells, and the Bruins have been held under two runs just twice in 38 games. But they've also allowed at least five runs 17 times and have allowed more than 10 runs five times. That they're 3-2 in those five games is amazing, but you don't have to try too hard to locate their fatal flaw.

No. 9 Florida State (35-4)

RPI ranking: ninth (SOS: 55th)
Record vs. top 25: 1-4
OPS ranking: 12th (1.069)
OPS allowed ranking: 21st (0.679)

The Seminoles are a bit light on marquee wins: They won an 11-7 track meet against UCLA but lost four other games against top-10 teams by a combined 25-4. Still, they swept Clemson a couple of weeks ago, and they'll get two cracks at No. 7 Florida and have a road series against No. 23 Stanford in the coming weeks, so we'll learn plenty about their upside. Shortstop Isa Torres is one of the most well-rounded hitters in the country -- she's second in on-base percentage and seventh in slugging percentage -- and sophomore Jazzy Francik is an ace with a 1.71 ERA and only one loss all season (5-1 to Alabama).

No. 10 Tennessee (32-6)

RPI ranking: sixth (SOS: 12th)
Record vs. top 25: 12-4
OPS ranking: 57th (0.917)
OPS allowed ranking: first (0.424)

Here's another football reference for you: For Tennessee fans who grew up regaled with stories of Gen. Robert Neyland's football teams, with their minimal offenses and impenetrable defenses, Karen Weekly's UT softball teams probably feel just right. The Volunteers easily have the weakest offense of any major contender, but you have to score on them to beat them, and with Mardjetko's emergence as a genuine co-ace with Pickens, that's harder than ever to actually do. Tennessee has allowed more than two runs just six times in 38 games and twice in 22 games started by either Pickens or Mardjetko.

Contenders aside, who are the biggest surprises so far?

Aside from a few glitches for teams like preseason No. 5 Oregon and No. 12 Clemson, this year's expected favorites have fared pretty well. There's still room for some pleasant surprises, though. Arizona and Virginia Tech have exceeded their preseason rankings, and after a slow start, Duke is picking up steam in a hurry.

No. 11 Arizona (29-9)

Like UCLA, the Wildcats lack in the pitching department, but they can swing the bats, and they're one of only two teams to have scored multiple wins off the trio of Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. With where they're ranked, they could end up a nightmare matchup for a high seed in the super regionals.

No. 12 Virginia Tech (33-5)

Ranked 21st in the preseason poll, the Hokies have risen steadily and remain at 12th after a nice series win over Clemson. They rank just 82nd in strength of schedule, but they're top-15 in both OPS (fifth) and OPS allowed (12th) and could snag a national seed in the NCAA tournament.

No. 16 Duke (28-11)

The Blue Devils were 19th in the preseason poll and stumbled mightily out of the gate, starting just 9-9. But they've won 19 of 21 since, and after winning series against both Virginia Tech and Stanford, they swept No. 17 Virginia -- a team that might have made this list just days ago -- this past weekend.

Who are the most likely mid-major spoilers?

The gap between haves and have-nots has expanded in college sports, and it's had as much of an impact on the diamond as anywhere else. But we can still usually count on upsets imploding portions of the NCAA bracket; we certainly did last year, with Liberty knocking off top-seeded Texas A&M and Southeastern Louisiana taking out No. 10 LSU in the regionals. SELA was a surprise, but Liberty was an obvious bracket-buster candidate; who are this year's most likely mid-major darlings?

Belmont (27-9)

If you have Maya Johnson, you have a chance in any game. The senior has thrown over 600 innings, with over 1,000 strikeouts, in her career, and she has been otherworldly this spring, going 19-1 with a 0.53 ERA. Her only loss? A 1-0 defeat to Tennessee in which she gave up zero earned runs. The Belmont bats are subpar, but you still have to score on Johnson to beat the Bruins.

No. 25 Grand Canyon (37-4)

The Lopes are the lone ranked mid-major despite dropping a pair of nailbiters in a series loss to Nevada last week. They're still quite well-rounded, however, ranking eighth in OPS allowed (0.604) and 25th in OPS (0.992); their offense scored 10 combined runs against Arizona and Oklahoma State (their only two other losses before last weekend), and they've held opponents to two or fewer runs 26 times.

Boston University (29-11)

The Terriers are getting a lot of mileage out of two defeats of Duke, but they've scored some other solid wins over teams like Northwestern and Ohio State, and they've been far too much for Patriot League foes thus far, starting 8-1 in conference. With 15 home runs and 53 RBIs, left fielder Kylie Doherty is one of the best batters in the mid-major ranks.

Marshall (28-10)

They didn't come particularly close to snagging a big win -- they lost four games to No. 7 Florida and No. 10 Florida State by a combined 36-11 -- but they've beaten BU and Liberty, among others, and they have the highest RPI of any mid-major (25th). Their pitching has been solid against everyone that isn't a top-10 team, too, and they're 10-2 in Sun Belt play.