Don't be fooled by April stats

The second month of the fantasy baseball season is a prime time to work the trade market, supplementing your roster at prospective discounts.

Each player's sample size remains small, casting a still-artificial guise of player valuations, and fantasy managers with sluggish starting teams low in the standings are probably more panicked than than they should be. Additionally, we're still early enough in the year that people are paying a ton of attention to their fantasy baseball teams -- we're still two-plus months away from the opening of NFL training camps, so that helps. In other words, you're going to be able to find yourself a good number of prospective trade partners.

To the point about the artificiality of player values, there are always examples, every season, of lofty opening-month statistics bloating perceptions of players' worth. In 2024, it was Alec Bohm, who scored 104 fantasy points in March/April but has never exceeded 80 in any other month in his entire career. In 2023, Jorge Mateo scored 90 fantasy points in the opening month -- more than half of his seasonal total (172) and nearly as many as he had in the entirety of 2024 (100). And in 2022, Miles Mikolas enjoyed a 79-point April behind a 1.52 ERA, only to post ERAs of 3.50 or greater in 14 of the subsequent 17 months.

That's not to say that every unexpected hot starter is destined to quickly fade thereafter, as in those same seasons, Kyle Wright (2022), Yandy Diaz (2023) and Tanner Houck (2024) maintained a good amount of value those entire years. The demand is that you closely examine the rationale behind the player's hot start, his skill set, then make a call on what to do with him.

Examining the following players' April 2025 numbers, here's my call: I'm not buying it!

Standard points leagues

Alex Bregman, 3B, Boston Red Sox: He's a very good player and an often underrated one in points-based leagues, but he's not this good. Bregman has benefited from the Red Sox having faced baseball's softest schedule thus far and, among his five home runs have been two at homer-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field and another against Charlie Morton and his 10.36 ERA.

Bregman's BABIP is more than 100 points higher than it was in any of his previous three seasons and 91 points higher than his career number. Fenway Park might be uniquely suited to his doubles-power, pull-oriented swing, but even that doesn't guarantee the superstar-like pace line that he currently has.

The 3B I'd rather have: Austin Riley

Cedric Mullins, OF, Baltimore Orioles: One of the few things going right for the last-place Orioles, Mullins' team-leading fantasy point total has been the product of advantageous circumstances. Three of his six home runs wouldn't have cleared the fence in half (or more) of MLB parks, and one would only have been so at the very place he hit it: Camden Yards. He has a BABIP nearly 30 points higher than his career number, despite his career-low 27.5% ground ball rate (fly balls being likelier to become outs).

Mullins' greater level of selectivity at the plate is intriguing, but it's difficult to overlook that he has begun each of his past three seasons strongly, while in 2023 and 2024 he was wildly inconsistent thereafter. Expect a similar pattern this year, though to lift Orioles fans' spirits, the team should improve even if Mullins doesn't, being that their roster is littered with underperforming young hitters.

The OF I'd rather have: Lawrence Butler

Ryan Pressly, RP, Chicago Cubs: I have multiple shares of the guy (meaning fingers crossed this one's terribly wrong), but I doubt his ability to maintain the Cubs' closer role with the kinds of early peripherals he has. Pressly's fastball velocity is at a career low, he has more walks (7) than strikeouts (5), and he has the fifth-worst hard hit rate allowed among relievers. Quite frankly, he's lucky to have a 2.25 ERA and be perfect in his save chances, though it's not unthinkable that he can do just enough to improve to maintain the job -- think a Ryan Dempster-like or Hector Rondon-type season, to cite two past Cubs closers.

The RP I'd rather have: Justin Martinez

Larger mixed and 'only' leagues

Gavin Lux, 2B/OF, Cincinnati Reds: Most of his fantasy managers presumably took a flier on him in the final rounds of their drafts, so everything he has done thus far has probably pleased them plenty. Nevertheless, he's playing over his head, best illustrated by his Statcast wOBA/expected wOBA differential being the fourth-highest in the wrong direction among qualified hitters (Andy Pages, Mullins and Bryson Stott are the only ones ahead of him). Lux still has a wide platoon split and no firm everyday defensive position on a Reds roster deep at the infield positions, making him a prime fantasy trade candidate.

The 2B I'd rather have: Luis Garcia Jr.

Tyler Mahle, SP, Texas Rangers: The AL's ERA leader has gotten there thanks to top-10 numbers in terms of BABIP, HR/FB and strand rates. Statcast estimates that his ERA should be more than 2.33 runs higher. That 3.49 xERA, by the way, is right in line with his usual norms. Mahle has also struggled mightily to stay healthy historically, making at least one 30-day IL trip apiece in 2019 and 2022-24, and his average fastball velocity thus far is considerably beneath his number the one year he was able to stay entirely healthy (2021).

The SP I'd rather have: Casey Mize

Tylor Megill, SP, New York Mets: Fantasy's SP21 in terms of points thus far, Megill has been one of April's most unexpected stars. He has completely readjusted his pitch repertoire -- going heavier on sliders and changeups against lefties, and more sinker-oriented against righties -- and the Mets' 2024 track record of maximizing value from within their rotation serves as an encouraging sign for their prospective 2025 breakthroughs.

With that in mind, pardon my skepticism. Megill has dealt with shoulder issues in two of the past three seasons which casts doubt upon his ability to hold up over 30-plus starts, not to mention that he seems to be getting a lot more from his secondary pitches (more whiffs, better-than-expected wOBA) than he should. In time, my gut says hitters will readjust to him, making this a prime time to trade him.

By the way, to my opening point about hot starters from previous seasons, Megill himself has done this before, scoring a fifth-best-among-pitchers 83 fantasy points in April 2022. Back then, he lasted only two more starts in the Mets rotation before landing on the IL due to biceps tendinitis.

The SP I'd rather have: Gavin Williams