Five teams, three spots - which way will race for Champions League go?

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Eddie Howe stands with his hands together in a prayer-like poseImage source, EPA

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Eddie Howe is hoping to take Newcastle back into the Champions League

Emlyn Begley

BBC Sport journalist

Five Premier League teams will battle it out for three Champions League places on the final day of the season, with Newcastle boss Eddie Howe saying he "had the feeling it would go right to the end".

Arsenal's 1-0 win over the Magpies on Sunday ensured they join champions Liverpool in next season's Champions League.

But it leaves Newcastle as one of three teams on 66 points, alongside Chelsea and Aston Villa, with Manchester City and Nottingham Forest on 65 points.

Five English sides will qualify for the Champions League through the league, up from the usual four, with an extra place secured because of positive results by Premier League clubs in Europe this season.

Sixth-placed Manchester City have a game in hand, at home to Bournemouth on Tuesday, meaning their fate is in their own hands, unlike Villa.

Beaten FA Cup finalists City then visit Fulham on the final day.

Newcastle, meanwhile, know a home win against Everton next Sunday (16:00 BST) would successfully finish the job.

Chelsea also know a win would be enough. But... they visit Forest, who beat West Ham 2-1 on Sunday to keep their own hopes alive.

Forest need to beat the Blues and hope at least one team above them slips up.

Villa will probably need to win at Manchester United and hope for favours elsewhere.

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The winners of Wednesday's Europa League final between Manchester United and Tottenham will also qualify for next season's Champions League, meaning there will be a sixth English team in the competition, but that has no impact on any league permutations.

With Spurs and United in the bottom five of the Premier League, whoever loses in Bilbao will have no European football of any kind next season.

Another European finalist, Chelsea, could have a say in what other English teams qualify for various European competitions, but more on that later.

How the European battle looks

Premier League table (positions 3-11)

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Third to fifth place will join Liverpool and Arsenal in qualifying for the Champions League, sixth is a Europa League spot, while seventh and eighth are unclear yet

What do the managers say?

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Howe 'disappointed' to lose despite 'strong' performance

Two of the managers still involved in the tussle for Champions League places had games on Sunday.

Howe's Newcastle could have gone second and almost cemented their place if they had beaten Arsenal.

They are guaranteed at least a Conference League place after winning the Carabao Cup, but they want more, so beating Everton is the objective.

"Halfway through the season we weren't in a great position. We worked hard to get here. It's an incredibly tight race. We have one more game to execute what we need," said Howe.

"We love playing at home. It's a really great atmosphere. We don't want to get ahead of ourselves and make it too emotional."

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'Let's enjoy it' - Nuno delight at Forest win

Forest's Champions League hopes would have been over had they lost to West Ham. Now they will fancy the job at home against Chelsea.

"It's a good boost of confidence, [being at] the City Ground is another big boost for us, it's going to be bouncing," said boss Nuno Espirito Santo.

"We will fight, it's the final game so we're going to fight for something huge for us - something magical.

"It's great. Let's enjoy it, it's going to be a good week for us. If we'd thought in the beginning of the season that we'd be playing to play in the Champions League we'd sign it."

What do the experts say?

Statisticians Opta give Manchester City the best chance of qualifying for the Champions League - 85.9% - because of that game in hand.

Newcastle are not far behind with an 83.5% chance, and Chelsea are predicted to finish there in 56.8% of their predictions.

Villa are given a 44.4% hope, with Forest down on 29.3%.

Former Newcastle striker Les Ferdinand, speaking on Sky Sports, said: "I think the last game of the season at home you'd expect Newcastle to beat Everton because Everton have nothing to play for.

"I think Manchester City will do it. We know they can produce when they want. I know things haven't been great for them this season but they can turn up when they need to."

Ex-Liverpool midfielder Jamie Redknapp added: "I still think City are going to do it but it's not going to be easy by any stretch. The team with the easiest fixture is Aston Villa because they have Manchester United away.

"These aren't teams that are in bang in form.

"It was a massive win for Nottingham Forest against West Ham because they've given themselves a real chance. Now Chelsea have to go there next week and play against a team that's got that confidence back."

What relevant fixtures are left?

Newcastle: Everton (H)

Chelsea: Nottingham Forest (A)

Aston Villa: Manchester United (A)

Manchester City: Bournemouth (H); Fulham (A)

Nottingham Forest: Chelsea (H)

Who else will qualify for Europe?

Crystal Palace, who are 12th in the league, have qualified for the Europa League by winning the FA Cup, beating Manchester City in Saturday's final.

The team who finish sixth will also qualify for the Europa League.

Newcastle United, as Carabao Cup winners, have earned at least a place in next season's Conference League.

If Newcastle finish in the top six, then seventh place in the Premier League will qualify for the Conference League instead.

The teams who finish sixth and seventh will be the two teams who miss out on the Champions League next weekend, because there is a 10-point drop to eighth.

Now... there is a chance that the team who finish eighth can qualify for the Conference League.

That will happen if Chelsea finish seventh in the league - a 22.8% chance according to Opta - and win the Conference League final against Real Betis on Wednesday, 28 May.

In that scenario, Chelsea would qualify for the Europa League because of winning their final in Wroclaw.

That is for quite complicated reasons - which you can read here if you like - but you might be better off just trusting us.

Brentford sit eighth currently, above Brighton on goal difference. Fulham - after a win over the Bees - are one point behind that pair - and Bournemouth are another point behind.

But Brighton - at home to Liverpool on Monday - and Bournemouth - at City on Tuesday - have games in hand.

If Chelsea win the Conference League and finish sixth, England will have three teams in the Europa League (including the team who finish seventh) and none in the Conference League.

What relevant fixtures are left?

Brentford: Wolves (A)

Brighton: Liverpool (H); Tottenham (A)

Fulham: Manchester City (H)

Bournemouth: Manchester City (A); Leicester (H)

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Sehat Sejahterah| ESPN | | |