Heatwave likely to be confirmed as record-breaking temperatures forecast

ByMatt Taylor

Lead Weather Presenter

A heatwave is expected to officially be declared for parts of the UK on Sunday as a spell of unusual May heat intensifies.

A temperature of 30.5C was recorded at Frittenden in Kent on Saturday - the highest of the year so far. The soaring temperatures could also lead to new national May temperature records being set on bank holiday Monday.

While the tourism and hospitality industry are welcoming the well-timed hot and sunny weather, the longevity of the heatwave is likely to have impacts on the health of some.

Amber heat-health alerts remain in force for parts of the Midlands and eastern England until at least Wednesday.

This all depends on where you live and is based on the "normal" climate there.

Met Office heatwave criteria sets the temperature for a heatwave at 25C in Scotland, Northern Ireland, much of Wales and northern England.

For many other areas of England, as well as south-east Wales, it is 26 or 27C. In London, most of the home counties and Cambridgeshire, it is 28C.

These thresholds must be reached or exceeded on at least three consecutive days.

It is possible that many areas will officially be classed as being in a heatwave when Sunday's temperatures are confirmed.

For some areas it is likely to turn into a prolonged heatwave.

Saturday brought the UK its first 30C day of the year, and the earliest date 30C was reached since 1952.

With heat set to build further across England and Wales on bank holiday Monday it looks increasingly likely that a new all-time UK May temperature record will be set.

32.8C is currently the highest temperature ever recorded in May. It was set on the Late Spring Bank Holiday Monday in 1944 at Tunbridge Wells, Horsham and Central London.

Current forecasts show the possibility of exceeding 33C in parts of south-east England.

The night-time temperature record for May could also be swept aside too if any location stays above the 18.9C set in Folkestone on the night of the 30-31 May 1947.

Forecasts show that some areas of England and Wales may stay above heatwave criteria for most of the week.

30C days in May the UK are relatively rare; however, it is conceivable we could see four or five recorded this week alone.

Climate change is believed to have played a role in such hot spells as this.

According to the Met Office's State of the UK Climate report, the number of days in the UK with temperatures above 28C has more than doubled and the number of days with temperatures above 30C has more than trebled in the most recent decade, compared with the 1961-1990 average.

Sunshine and heat will not grip the entire UK this weekend.

Parts of north-west Scotland are expected to stay fairly cloudy at times, with some occasional rain likely and temperatures in the lower-teens.

Other parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland will be pleasantly warm, rather than hot as temperatures slowly increase over the coming days. The warmth may peak here around Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures hitting the mid-20s Celsius.

Some coasts will also be fresher, where sea breezes come off a cooler sea. It is worth remembering though that, whatever the temperature UV levels are expected to be high.