Let's simulate the rest of the 2025 NFL season: The past three weeks, plus playoff and Super Bowl results

With three weeks left in the 2025 NFL regular season, we're starting to get a sense of which teams will be in the playoffs. The Broncos and Rams have clinched berths, but the remaining 12 postseason teams and overall seedings remain a murky mystery.

Every day, we use ESPN's Football Power Index to simulate the season 10,000 times -- driving our projections and delivering countless permutations for how the remainder of the campaign could go. Today, we're going to focus on just one of those scenarios: FPI simulation No. 5,002.

We asked the FPI to simulate the last three weeks of the season and come up with the most likely field of 14 playoff teams and the exact seeding order for those teams within each conference. On top of that, we predicted the entire playoff race -- with a Super Bowl LX winner -- and who would get the No. 1 draft pick.

Let's explore simulation No. 5,002, starting with score projections for the rest of the regular season.

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Scores projections by week: 16 | 17 | 18
Final standings: AFC | NFC
The playoffs: Who will win Super Bowl LX?

Projected Week 16 scores

LAR-SEA: Seahawks 27, Rams 25
GB-CHI: Bears 31, Packers 10
PHI-WSH: Commanders 26, Eagles 24
ATL-ARI: Cardinals 29, Falcons 10
NE-BAL: Ravens 19, Patriots 17
TB-CAR: Buccaneers 20, Panthers 17
BUF-CLE: Bills 35, Browns 6
LAC-DAL: Chargers 20, Cowboys 17
JAX-DEN: Broncos 23, Jaguars 21
PIT-DET: Lions 47, Steelers 10
LV-HOU: Texans 33, Raiders 23
CIN-MIA: Bengals 22, Dolphins 14
NYJ-NO: Saints 20, Jets 17
MIN-NYG: Vikings 20, Giants 13
KC-TEN: Titans 30, Chiefs 27
SF-IND: 49ers 10, Colts 6

What happened: NFC drama! On Thursday night, the Seahawks snuck past the Rams with a time-expiring, 55-yard field goal from Jason Myers. Not only did that outcome leave the NFC West wide open, it kept the conference's No. 1 seed up for grabs. By avenging their loss to the Rams in Week 11, the Seahawks took the lead in the top seed race for a moment. (More on that later.) The 49ers also stayed in the hunt with a Monday night win over the Colts.

Saturday's NFC doubleheader created even more chaos in the playoff race. The Bears stomped Green Bay, displaying their threat level to a national audience and increasing their playoff odds to 95%. (Because the Lions also won, Chicago was unable to clinch a playoff berth.) The Eagles dropped a close game to the Commanders, knocking the defending champions out of the race for the No. 1 seed; but Philadelphia clinched the NFC East after the Cowboys fell to the Chargers.

The AFC East leaderboard leveled out after a narrow loss by the Patriots to Baltimore and a dominant win by the Bills over Cleveland. The Ravens' victory combined with the Steelers' lopsided loss to Lions meant the AFC North would come down to the Baltimore-Pittsburgh contest in Week 18, regardless of what happens in Week 17. And in a battle between two contenders for the AFC's top seed, a red-hot Bo Nix outdueled a red-hot Trevor Lawrence to lead Denver past Jacksonville.

Projected Week 17 scores

DEN-KC: Broncos 23, Chiefs 6
DET-MIN: Vikings 26, Lions 7
DAL-WSH: Commanders 35, Cowboys 32
BAL-GB: Ravens 39, Packers 26
HOU-LAC: Texans 33, Chargers 6
PHI-BUF: Bills 35, Eagles 7
SEA-CAR: Panthers 36, Seahawks 30
ARI-CIN: Cardinals 29, Bengals 22
PIT-CLE: Steelers 34, Browns 3
JAX-IND: Colts 30, Jaguars 20
NYG-LV: Giants 27, Raiders 13
TB-MIA: Buccaneers 31, Dolphins 26
NE-NYJ: Patriots 31, Jets 3
CHI-SF: Bears 12, 49ers 6
NO-TEN: Saints 16, Titans 14
LAR-ATL: Rams 24, Falcons 6

What happened: The Broncos took the AFC's top spot! With a win over the Gardner Minshew-led Chiefs, Denver -- fittingly led by a defensive masterpiece -- clinched the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

In the NFC, the Seahawks fumbled their advantage over the Rams, losing a barnburner to the Panthers. That outcome, in conjunction with the Rams' win over the Falcons and the 49ers' loss to the Bears, put the Rams back into pole position for the No. 1 seed while also giving new life to Chicago's top seed hopes.

The Bills and Patriots kept things interesting with wins, postponing the conclusion of the AFC East race another week. And in a critical game for NFL draft positioning, the Giants soundly defeated the Raiders; although, really, it was the Raiders who won, gaining the inside track to the No. 1 pick.

Projected Week 18 scores

NO-ATL: Falcons 16, Saints 14
NYJ-BUF: Bills 45, Jets 24
DET-CHI: Lions 34, Bears 17
CLE-CIN: Browns 44, Bengals 24
LAC-DEN: Broncos 24, Chargers 17
IND-HOU: Colts 20, Texans 13
TEN-JAX: Jaguars 45, Titans 30
ARI-LAR: Rams 31, Cardinals 17
KC-LV: Chiefs 34, Raiders 19
GB-MIN: Packers 37, Vikings 7
MIA-NE: Patriots 31, Dolphins 18
DAL-NYG: Cowboys 41, Giants 28
WSH-PHI: Eagles 42, Commanders 21
BAL-PIT: Steelers 34, Ravens 23
SEA-SF: Seahawks 31, 49ers 10
CAR-TB: Buccaneers 26, Panthers 23

What happened: The Rams finished as the NFC's No. 1 seed, earning a bye for Matthew Stafford and the rest of Los Angeles' squad. It wasn't easy, though, as the Rams had to beat Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals since the Seahawks easily dispatched the 49ers.

The Bears took themselves out of contention for the top seed by losing badly to the Lions. Detroit's desperate win wasn't enough to keep its playoff hopes alive, as the Packers ended a half-game above Detroit for the No. 7 seed in the NFC after beating the Vikings. It turns out Green Bay's Week 4 tie with the Cowboys mattered!

The Bills and the Patriots both won by multiple scores, but New England took the division via tiebreaker because of a better divisional record. And in the much-anticipated showdown to settle the AFC North, the Steelers came through as home underdogs. Pittsburgh's pass rush bothered Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who never quite looked like himself in a decisive loss.

Projecting the AFC

1. Denver Broncos (15-2)
2. New England Patriots (13-4)
3. Houston Texans (11-6)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
5. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6)
7. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
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8. Indianapolis Colts (10-7)
9. Baltimore Ravens (9-8)
10. Kansas City Chiefs (7-10)
11. Miami Dolphins (6-11)
12. Cincinnati Bengals (5-12)
13. Cleveland Browns (4-13)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-14)
15. New York Jets (3-14)
16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-15)

Broncos take No. 1 seed: Denver took care of business. It entered Week 16 in the driver's seat for the top seed but still needed to get wins, including over another contender for the No. 1 seed in the Jaguars. The Broncos simply won out, beating the Jags, the Chiefs and the Chargers in successive fashion to finish two games ahead of the No. 2-seeded Patriots. Denver entered the playoffs on fire, with 14 straight wins.

Texans snag AFC South from Jaguars: Not only did Jacksonville miss its long shot bid for the No. 1 seed, it actually let the AFC South slip away too. And it happened before Week 18! The Jaguars narrowly lost to the Broncos in Week 16 and again to the Philip Rivers-led Colts in Week 17. Meanwhile, the Texans topped both the Raiders and the Chargers -- scoring 33 points in each victory, oddly enough -- over the same stretch to secure the division. Jacksonville still made the playoffs as the No. 6 seed, while Houston moved up to the 3-seed.

Chargers ride two-game losing streak into the playoffs: The Chargers clinched a playoff spot in Week 16 by virtue of beating the Cowboys combined with the Colts losing to the 49ers. At the time, the Bolts still had an outside chance to win the AFC West, even with Denver winning that week. But things got ugly in Week 17, when Houston edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter obliterated L.A.'s weak offensive line. It was so bad that coach Jim Harbaugh pulled Justin Herbert at the start of the fourth quarter with the game out of hand. The Chargers then rested their starters in Week 18 with the No. 7 seed already locked up.

Raiders earn No. 1 overall pick: Las Vegas entered Week 16 controlling its destiny for the top selection in the 2026 draft -- and the team maximized that advantage. Most critically, the Raiders lost to the Giants by two touchdowns in Week 17. But Las Vegas also had to lose against the Texans and the Chiefs, falling to both by multiple scores. Now, the watch is on: Which quarterback will the Raiders take? Perhaps Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza?

Projecting the NFC

1. Los Angeles Rams (13-4)
2. Chicago Bears (12-5)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-7)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
5. Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
6. San Francisco 49ers (11-6)
7. Green Bay Packers (10-6-1)
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8. Detroit Lions (10-7)
9. Carolina Panthers (8-9)
10. Minnesota Vikings (8-9)
11. Dallas Cowboys (7-9-1)
12. Atlanta Falcons (6-11)
13. Washington Commanders (6-11)
14. New Orleans Saints (6-11)
15. Arizona Cardinals (5-12)
16. New York Giants (3-14)

Rams come back to secure No. 1 seed: Los Angeles was on the ropes after its Week 16 loss. With San Francisco and Chicago posting victories, the Rams' chances to win the NFC dropped to under 15%, according to the FPI. But then their fortunes -- and play -- turned around. The Rams closed out the season with wins over the Falcons and the Cardinals, while the Seahawks, the Bears and the 49ers all lost at least one game, giving back the No. 1 seed to Los Angeles.

Buccaneers take NFC South: The Panthers and the Bucs entered Week 16 tied with 7-7 records and set to face each other twice in the final three games. The Buccaneers seemed on the verge of an epic collapse, having lost five of their previous six contests entering the first matchup with Carolina. But Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield pulled out a three-point victory. After a win over Miami, the Bucs again beat Carolina by a field goal in the finale. The result? They earned the conference's No. 4 seed.

Packers hold off Lions for No. 7 seed: It came down to the final week. Detroit needed a win and a Packers loss to sneak into the postseason. That didn't happen. The Lions took care of their end of the scenario with a victory over the NFC North champion Bears, but Green Bay blew out Minnesota. The Pack's defense suffocated Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy, coming away with two interceptions. The Lions can look to a Christmas Day loss to McCarthy at Minnesota as the game that ultimately cost them the playoffs.

What to expect in the playoffs

Projected wild-card matchups:

Chargers (7) at Patriots (2)
Jaguars (6) at Texans (3)
Bills (5) at Steelers (4)
Packers (7) at Bears (2)
49ers (6) at Eagles (3)
Seahawks (5) at Buccaneers (4)

Who goes all the way? While we just detailed the chalky regular season of simulation No. 5,002, now we get to the fun part.

The big headline out of the AFC wild-card round? The fall of the Bills. Buffalo was shockingly dismantled by the Steelers 30-13 in Pittsburgh after the Bills' defense once again couldn't stop the run. Meanwhile, the Jaguars upset the Texans in a 21-13 defensive affair, while the Patriots took care of business against the Chargers 20-7.

The NFC wild-card round produced several shockers, as well. After getting waxed by the Bears in Week 16, the Packers took revenge on their division rivals with a 27-7 victory in which Jordan Love shined and Caleb Williams collapsed. After all Seattle accomplished this season, the visiting Seahawks immediately fell short in a stunning 21-13 loss to the Buccaneers. And the Eagles' tumultuous season ended in a 34-24 defeat at the hands of the 49ers.

Both No. 1 seeds took care of business in the divisional round. The Broncos defeated the Jaguars 28-22, while the Rams easily handled the Micah Parsons-less Packers 27-13. The Buccaneers continued their improbable run in a defense-fueled 23-10 win over the 49ers. And the Patriots defeated the Steelers 39-30 in a shootout.

New England's defense clamped down in the AFC Championship Game, holding Nix and the Broncos' passing attack to only seven points. Denver's defense almost bested that with a first-half shutout, but quarterback Drake Maye and the Patriots generated enough points for a 10-7 victory.

The Rams' path to the Super Bowl was much cleaner, as they held a two-touchdown advantage from the second quarter on against Tampa Bay. Stafford threw three touchdown passes and eclipsed 300 yards in the 34-17 win.

Projected Super Bowl LX matchup: Los Angeles (1) vs. New England (2)

This rematch of Super Bowl LIII, which ended in a 13-3 Patriots victory, was certainly more exciting.

Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua put together a career-defining performance to win Super Bowl MVP, catching eight passes for 143 yards and two touchdowns. Los Angeles held a 30-24 lead over New England in the final minutes, giving Maye time for one last drive. But it wasn't meant to be, as a fourth-down sack by edge rusher Jared Verse ended the drive short of the end zone. Coach Sean McVay and the Rams were champions once again.

ESPN's Hank Gargiulo contributed to this story.