Nine big questions for the nine top freshmen in the 2026 NBA draft

The quality of a historically good freshman class has kept excitement high around the 2026 NBA draft, as reflected by the behavior of multiple teams doing everything in their power to lose games -- and pivot toward improved lottery odds.

In 2017, a record 11 freshmen were selected among the 14 lottery picks. This year's group will challenge and potentially break that mark: The nine prospects atop ESPN's rankings are all freshmen, with five others inside the top 20 within striking distance. All of them, save for big man Hannes Steinbach (Washington), are projected to make the NCAA tournament, making this one of the most prospect-heavy fields ever.

Whether you've followed the draft all year or you're just now tuning in for March, here's where the top freshman prospects stand, what they have left to gain in the final stretch of the season and the biggest questions surrounding their draft profile.

Darryn Peterson, PG/SG, Kansas
Latest rank: 1
Age: 19.1

The season so far: Peterson is the draft's most gifted shot creator and a top-flight perimeter shooter, giving him the highest offensive ceiling of anyone in the class. As a result, he was viewed by many around the NBA as the front-runner for the No. 1 pick entering the season. But nothing has gone according to plan for him at Kansas, as he has battled injury and illness and faced criticism for the intermittent nature of his availability. Peterson has played 27.9 minutes per game while starting 19 of the Jayhawks' 30 games, with bouts of cramping at times preventing him from finishing them.

There aren't many holes in Peterson's skill set, however. Scouts with whom I've spoken haven't expressed major questions around his passing or explosiveness, traits they feel have been limited by his role in Kansas' offensive scheme and inconsistent health. The nature of the situation has made things much more interesting than expected.

The big question: How strong is Peterson's hold on the No. 1 spot?

The lack of concrete information about Peterson's health has left NBA teams with more questions than answers. Amid the public negativity, scouts and execs I've talked to have consistently emphasized the need for patience, as there won't be a full referendum on his health until NBA teams receive his medical reports at the combine.

There remains a lot of NBA support for Peterson as the draft's most talented prospect, but his freshman season has added complexity to the decision at No. 1. Draft night will ultimately come down to the risk tolerance of whichever team wins the lottery and how that team views Peterson's trajectory. There has been very little question about his ability, but it will have to outweigh the health factor, particularly with AJ Dybantsa presenting a viable and less-complicated alternative.

Peterson has played 30-plus minutes in four straight games, but he has shot just 32% in that stretch. If he can get right, a strong, healthy March would serve as a reminder of why much of the league was head over heels for him entering the fall. The best way for Peterson to reclaim his own narrative is by playing well.

AJ Dybantsa, SF, BYU
Latest rank: 2
Age: 19.1

The season so far: Dybantsa put together an excellent February and has shown a good deal of growth, answering some of the questions surrounding his decision-making, shot selection and jump shooting. He's arguably the most physically gifted prospect in the class, a dynamic slasher averaging 26.2 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.8 assists through 17 Big 12 games and leading the league in scoring. As scouts have zeroed in on his jump shooting, Dybantsa has been taking 3s with more confidence, shooting a passable 34.7% from range. He has made better decisions and shown more assertiveness as the season has gone on.

On his best nights, Dybantsa very much looks the part of a No.1-caliber prospect, presenting as a strong option atop the draft and potentially a more reliable, safe choice based on the way Peterson's season has gone. Because of his size and physical gifts, many NBA scouts believe Dybantsa's two-way upside is the highest in the class.

The big question: How else can Dybantsa strengthen his case at No. 1?

Dybantsa has already done quite a bit to close the gap, and with Richie Saunders out for the remainder of the season, he has been asked to do even more. However, the Cougars have lost four of their past five and are backpedaling into the postseason. He'll be asked to help them turn things around on a big stage. He'll help his case if he can also turn up the dial defensively, an area where he has significant potential, but can be selectively engaged. Some of that is due in part to his heavy offensive workload, but it won't hurt to remind NBA execs of his upside on that end of the floor, with a 7-foot wingspan and the ability to match up all over.

The race for No. 1 is shaping up as an eye-of-the-beholder decision for whichever team wins the lottery. If Dybantsa continues to play at a high level and can position himself as a safer alternative to Peterson with similarly high upside, it should help his case. NBA teams are splitting hairs behind the scenes.

Cameron Boozer, F/C, Duke
Latest rank: 3
Age: 18.6

The season so far: Boozer has lived up to lofty preseason expectations, backing up his long-held reputation as a driver of winning basketball. His consistency and historic productivity -- he's on pace to break Zion Williamson's record for box plus-minus, according to the analytics site BartTorvik.com -- as the youngest prospect in this group dominates projection models. There's a good case to be made for him as the most NBA-ready player in the class, as the main force behind 28-2 Duke's elite offense. Scouts have compared him to All-Star-level players such as Domantas Sabonis, Kevin Love and Al Horford, with a chance to become an even bigger star considering his age (he's among the youngest prospects in the draft) and statistical output.

Although Boozer is typically described as a post player, it's his ability to face the basket, make quick decisions, make plays for teammates and stretch the floor (40.4% from 3) that make him a special offensive engine. Much of his value actually comes on the perimeter, where he's devastating in two-man actions and has the strength to bully mismatches. The deeper Boozer can carry the Blue Devils into March, the longer he'll make the argument for himself as the safest pick in the draft.

Boozer is having the best season of the top three prospects, and he's the only one carrying a team with realistic title hopes. For all his dominance, though, he's tracking toward being the third name off the board in June.

The big question: Why isn't Boozer a frontrunner ?

Boozer's offensive acumen is unquestionable, where he projects as a versatile, high-impact operator out of the box. The holdup for NBA evaluators has been the physical component of his game, as he lacks explosiveness, doesn't protect the rim at a high level and often struggles to get out onto shooters because of his foot speed -- things that tend to get targeted in the NBA postseason. Although he has a 7-foot wingspan at 6-foot-9, he lacks a pronounced height advantage for a big man and isn't quick enough to consistently guard the wing. Boozer's excellent positioning and instincts will have to prop up his value on that side of the ball.

While it appears less likely that Boozer winds up at No. 1, it won't be surprising to see him draw long looks at that spot in certain scenarios. For example, an analytically minded team such as the Memphis Grizzlies could strongly consider him atop its board. If the LA Clippers' pick belonging to the Oklahoma City Thunder makes an improbable leap to No. 1, the Thunder -- rife with perimeter talent -- would be a team with the luxury to prioritize fit, and Boozer could be a natural complement next to Chet Holmgren.

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Caleb Wilson, PF, North Carolina
Latest rank: 4
Age: 19.6

The season so far: Wilson's breakout season hit the skids when he fractured his hand on Feb. 10, but he has already made quite an impression, solidifying himself as a top-five prospect who can impact play on the interior with his activity and explosiveness, while also possessing untapped skill potential. He's working toward a return in March, with the Tar Heels headed back to the NCAA tournament, giving NBA teams one last look at him in a high-pressure environment.

Exceptionally quick off the floor, Wilson has dominated largely thanks to how hard he plays, winning extra possessions on the glass and finishing effectively inside 15 feet (72% at the rim with 67 dunks, and shooting 61% inside the arc). Wilson is still raw as a ball handler and not a reliable 3-point shooter. Envisioning his upside involves more projection than his peers. He has an outside chance of breaking into the top three, however, depending on which teams move up in the lottery.

The big question: What's the argument for Wilson in the top three?

Wilson is still scratching the surface from a skill perspective, and his projection as a top-three pick requires a bit of imagination, which makes for a polarizing evaluation. He's the type of bouncy athlete who could develop into a matchup problem on both ends of the floor, with plus passing instincts and shot creation prowess for his size while operating in the midrange. An absolute best-case scenario would be a jump in his skill sets that lets him better harness his 6-foot-10 frame as a mismatch creator, while also keeping consistent attention on the defensive end, improving his positioning and becoming a true plus on both ends of the floor.

Some NBA evaluators rate Wilson ahead of Boozer based on those potential upside outcomes, valuing how his vertical explosiveness and shot blocking could translate into two-way impact. Boozer is the far more polished player, but a team looking to build a more athletic, defensively versatile frontline could look at Wilson and take a chance on his development.

Kingston Flemings, PG, Houston
Latest rank: 5
Age: 19.2

The season so far: Flemings entered the season with modest hype, rated as the 22nd-best player in his class on the SC Next Top 100. That changed quickly as NBA teams got eyes on Houston, with a series of strong performances propelling him toward the top of the board. His explosive burst, ability to navigate to spots, vision as a passer and leadership qualities have all been evident, as he has become the best player on a team that made the NCAA title game in 2025.

While Flemings' blistering early-season efficiency has come back to earth, the excitement around his upside remains, with elite change of pace and the ability to play above the rim giving him a shot at stardom. Houston has a real chance at another Final Four run and will need him at his best to do it, giving him a platform to state his case in March as the potential second guard off the board.

The big question: How real is Flemings' shooting leap?

Jump shooting was the primary area of concern for Flemings coming out of high school, particularly from 3-point range, where his unorthodox mechanics are tricky to project. Now at 48%/37%/84% shooting splits on the season, Flemings has performed well above expectation, but his release is more of a one-motion forward fling that involves added motion in his elbow and arms. He is much more comfortable in the midrange, where his natural touch and ability to elevate and separate from defenders shine. But it's difficult to be an elite NBA playmaker without the ability to keep defenders honest from long range, and Flemings will have to keep proving it to access his upside.

Life has gotten a bit more difficult for Flemings lately, as Houston's other perimeter players have struggled to make shots, enabling defenses to load up in the paint and try to shrink his space. If the other Cougars can get going offensively, it'll help his chances of a full breakout in the postseason. Regardless of how Flemings fares in March, however, NBA teams will zero in on his shooting in workouts as they separate the guards in his tier of this class.

Keaton Wagler, PG/SG, Illinois
Latest rank: 6
Age: 19.1

The season so far: Wagler is one of the draft's best individual stories, as he has gone from a three-star recruit with no national profile to an irreplaceable fixture at Illinois, vaulting himself into the lottery mix as the leader of a top-10 team. There was plenty of buzz about Wagler in the fall from scouts who went to see Illinois practice, but nobody would have predicted the extent of his breakout, with a 46-point game at Purdue on Jan. 24 his coming-out party.

As a 6-foot-6 point guard, Wagler's ability to navigate ball screens, knack for making the correct play and excellent 3-point shooting (42%) have become the backbone of one of college basketball's elite offenses. It's rare for any teenage guard to have that level of success in a comprehensive lead role, let alone one with minimal high-level basketball under his belt. While he has struggled at times to score inside the arc (48.1% on twos), NBA evaluators see untapped upside as he gains strength and experience.

The big question: How high can Wagler rise?

There's a real chance Wagler can be the second guard off the board after Peterson and crack the top five, depending on how the lottery falls and how teams come to view the group of Flemings, Wagler, Darius Acuff Jr. and Mikel Brown Jr. As the tallest, youngest and latest-blooming player of the four, Wagler's unusual trajectory and valuable archetype will create a compelling argument. While a straight comparison would be unfair, Wagler has drawn stylistic similarities to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with scouts dialed in on his maturity, decision-making and craftiness as a scorer.

Illinois has a shot at the Final Four if Wagler is at his best, and a strong postseason could enhance his case with NBA decision-makers who might not have been homed in on him early on in Chicago for the Big Ten tournament. His positional size, shooting and intangibles could be significant separators as lottery teams dig in on these guards.

Nate Ament, SF/PF, Tennessee
Latest rank: 7
Age: 19.2

The season so far: Ament turned things around in SEC play after a slow start, putting together an excellent stretch before injuring his right leg on Saturday against Alabama. His status for the postseason remains unclear after he missed Tennessee's game Tuesday at South Carolina, but he stabilized his place on draft boards with his strong play in February, averaging 19 points and six rebounds per game in conference play. However, his lack of efficiency left something to be desired.

While the emergence of other players means Ament is no longer a top-five shoo-in, he remains a likely top-10 pick due to his positional size, skill and intangibles. He can rise and shoot over defenders at 6-foot-10 and has untapped upside as he gains strength and becomes more comfortable with his size. There's a glut of guards in this tier of the draft, and teams not searching for a ball handler could prioritize him as an addition at developmental forward who can raise the skill level of a team's frontcourt.

The big question: Can Ament make a leap as a shot creator?

When Ament is making shots, it's easy to see why he was a consensus top-five prospect entering the season. The jumbo wing scorer archetype tends to be an easy NBA elevator pitch. Forwards of his size who can handle, pass and shoot tend to more likely become rotation fixtures, at a minimum. The biggest question around Ament is simply how much he can improve as a creator over time, which will require developing his handle, footwork and shooting with more consistency.

Ament's play this season has made that piece of his projection a bit more complicated: He isn't an explosive athlete, he sometimes struggles to separate from defenders and he hasn't finished at the rim (54%) or made 3s (32.8%) at inspiring rates. He plays upright and doesn't have a well-developed handle, but teams will want to get a feel for these things in private to ascertain his upside. Ament should have a long, successful NBA career regardless, with several realistic growth areas that could make him a long-term starter.

Darius Acuff Jr., PG, Arkansas
Latest rank: 8
Age: 19.3

The season so far: Acuff has changed the narrative around his game coming out of high school, proving he is far from a selfish player by showing his ability to share the ball, pick his spots and lead Arkansas to wins. He has put together a strong season as a scorer and a distributor by limiting turnovers, making nearly 43% of his 3s and elevating a team that doesn't have much depth or secondary playmaking around him. Acuff's 49-point game at Alabama on Feb. 18 helped further cement him as a lottery talent, and he leads the SEC in points (22) and assists (6.2) per game to just two turnovers.

Although the 6-foot-3 Acuff is the smallest of the guards in this group, his strength, quickness and ability to play low to the ground with the ball give him a different type of physical advantage. It's hard to stop him from getting where he wants to go on the floor. He has been effective scoring at all three levels. And his toughness helps set the tone. The concerns are primarily on defense, where Acuff is willing to compete but doesn't make a huge visual impact on the perimeter as a deterrent for opposing shooters.

The big question: Where can Acuff separate himself from the other top guards?

Where Acuff falls in this pecking order remains to be seen, but he's arguably the most polished, which could make him a safer option than Flemings, Wagler or Brown. Those three all have obvious upside arguments due to their size and athletic traits -- Acuff's frame is close to maxed out -- but his ball security and ability to dictate the pace of play are separating characteristics. He has been the most consistent performer of the group this season. His style isn't always as aesthetically pleasing, but there's something to be said for his effectiveness between the lines.

Ultimately, it's easy to see lottery teams opting for the perceived upside of the other players, which is something Acuff can't control. But at this moment in time, he is the most NBA-ready of the four guards. He is capable of the type of postseason run that can further elevate his profile, and he'll need to do that for Arkansas to win a few games in the Big Dance. While he can't control how teams project him physically, this is an opportunity to further strengthen his body of work.

Mikel Brown Jr., PG, Louisville
Latest rank: 9
Age: 19.9

The season so far: Brown played his best basketball in February after returning from an eight-game absence due to a back injury, helping Louisville stabilize its spot on the NCAA tournament bubble. His 45-point outburst in a blowout of NC State was a highlight in a stretch that reminded NBA teams of his high-caliber offensive talent. Brown's ability to knock down tough perimeter shots at 6-foot-5 gives him a translatable way to attack defenses in the pros. However, he has been streaky for much of the season, in part due to the difficulty of his shot diet. Scouts regard him as a plus shooter, but he has made only 34% on his 3s. His availability has again come into question after he sat out Tuesday's home win versus Syracuse with more back issues.

It can be argued that Brown's dynamic movement shooting gives him the highest offensive upside of the guards outside of Peterson, with the ability to rise in tight spaces and get clean looks off the dribble from range. Brown also is an advanced passer, though it hasn't always translated into the assist column. Gaining physical strength and being a more consistently engaged defender will be imperative, but the potential that scouts raved about coming into the season is evident.

The big question: Which version of Brown will we see in March?

The extended absence limited Brown's opportunity to boost his profile, with other freshmen playing well in the meantime. If he can maintain his form in the postseason spotlight and continue to remind teams of his talent, inching back up the board is very much a possibility. Louisville has struggled to beat better competition both with and without Brown, but it has the talent to string together wins in the ACC and NCAA tournaments if things break right.

Brown is a much better player when he is patient and looks to attack the paint first, opening up opportunities for teammates. When he's settling for tough shots and forcing up attempts, things haven't always gone well. His skill level isn't in doubt, but reinforcing that he can make strong pass-shoot decisions under pressure would help address some of the concerns scouts still have.

Which other freshmen could go in the lottery?

The consensus around the NBA right now is that those nine players will wind up in the lotto. There's less certainty around the next part of the draft but room for players to state their cases over the next month. The 2017 draft had the most freshman-heavy first round ever, with 11 going in the lottery and 16 selected in the first round.

Steinbach (Washington), Brayden Burries (Arizona), Braylon Mullins (UConn), Chris Cenac Jr. (Houston) and Koa Peat (Arizona) are all projected first-round freshmen who could sneak into the lottery. There's also a case for some of these players to return and potentially rise in a thinner 2027 draft class, but would all hear their names called in the first round if they entered this year's draft.

Of that group, Burries has built the most tangible momentum of late, emerging as a go-to scorer for a prospect-heavy Arizona team capable of winning the national title. He is older for a freshman but is comfortable scoring on and off the ball and also has been a plus defender, giving him a well-rounded NBA skill set. Burries has fully turned it around after a slow start to the season and could wind up in the back half of the lottery if things keep trending this way.