No significant rain forecast for at least a week as UK heatwave continues

3 hours ago 3

Farm machinery kicks up dust as it works on a brown, dry field, with trees in the distance and a milky blue sky overheadImage source, BBC Weather Watchers / Yen Milne

ByBen Rich

Lead Weather Presenter

Heatwave conditions are set continue in many areas of the UK over the next few days - with some parts on course to have gone almost a month without any measurable wet weather.

Large swathes of England have so far recorded 0% of the rainfall they would normally expect in July, with Wisley in Surrey having gone 26 consecutive days without any. Rainfall in Wales and Northern Ireland is also far below average.

More than eight million households in England are now living under hosepipe bans while the ongoing dry weather means a continued risk of wildfires, with blazes already in areas including Greater Manchester and Conwy.

High pressure will dominate the UK forecast for at least the next week, with highs of up to 33C possible in southern England, meaning rain will be in very short supply.

High temperatures have been hitting the headlines so far this summer, setting numerous records:

  • New UK June temperature record: 37.7C at Lingwood, Norfolk, surpassing the previous record of 35.6C from 1976

  • New record for number of days reaching 35C or above: six days this summer so far, surpassing the previous record of five days set in 1976

  • New record for number of days reaching 34C or above: nine days this summer so far, surpassing the previous record of eight days set in 1976

It is also the first year on record when 35C or above has been reached in three different calendar months - May, June and July.

But rainfall - or the lack of it - is also a big story of the summer.

A number of places have had no measurable wet weather for around three weeks or longer.

  • No rain for 26 days: Wisley (Surrey)

  • No rain for 24 days: Herstmonceux (East Sussex)

  • No rain for 20 days: Cardington (Bedfordshire), Wittering (Cambridgeshire), Odiham (Hampshire), Heathrow (London)

For context, Wisley would expect to record 49.3mm (1.94in) of rain in a typical July, with Odiham seeing a monthly average of 50.8mm.

A largely brown coloured map of the UK superimposed on a photo of parched grassImage source, BBC Weather Watchers / Bailey / Met Office

Image caption,

Provisional Met Office data shows that first 11 days of July brought most places less than 20% of their usual monthly rainfall. Some have seen none at all.

Most areas of Wales have seen less than 10% of the usual July average, and in Northern Ireland the figure varies from 1% to 20%.

The one major exception is north-west Scotland where most areas have seen 40% or more of their normal monthly rainfall.

Aultbea (Highland) has already had 95% of its typical rain for July, with over half of the month remaining.

At this point in the month sites would have expected to have received 35% of the months total rain.

High pressure will remain close to the UK for the rest of this week.

This will keep widespread rainfall at bay meaning most areas remain largely, or completely, dry.

A few showers and thunderstorms are expected but these will be confined to the far south of England - as well as the Channel Islands - and even where these do turn up there will be places that fall between the downpours and stay dry.

Even further ahead there may be little relief, with some computer models suggesting high pressure is likely to remain in charge throughout next week - and possibly even beyond.

A BBC Weather chart showing forecast rainfall accumulations, with almost all areas of the UK expected to see no rain. A few areas of south-west England may see a little wet weather, as well as the Channel Islands.

Image caption,

Five day rainfall accumulations in most of the UK are expected to be zero

The threat of wildfires will continue, especially where dry weather is accompanied by breezy conditions.

Natural England, external is warning of a "very high" or "exceptional" risk of fires across much of England - as well as Wales - over the next few days.

Fires are already burning in a number of locations including Derbyshire, Greater Manchester and Conwy.

Dry weather does not, on its own, cause wildfires - there needs to be a source of ignition too, such as a spark from a barbecue or a discarded cigarette.

However, dry conditions remove moisture from vegetation making it more able to burn and act as fuel for blazes to take hold and spread.

When will the heatwave end?

After a slightly fresher start to the week temperatures are set to climb, returning to 32 or 33C (90-91F) in southern England by midweek.

Many parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and England will get into the mid to high-twenties.

It means heatwave conditions are likely to continue for several more days in places, probably reaching a total duration of two weeks in a few locations.

Northerly winds should bring slightly lower temperatures by the weekend - albeit still above the seasonal norm, with a chance that heatwave thresholds could still be met in the south.

You can keep an eye on the forecast highs where you are - as well as the all-important chance of rain - by checking the BBC Weather app.

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