Reranking power conferences: A Big Ten vs. Big 12 battle for No. 1

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Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. Arizona Wildcats: Game Highlights

Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. Arizona Wildcats: Game Highlights

We're changing the formula for this season's monthly rankings of men's college basketball power conferences. Instead of measuring only the projected number of NCAA tournament bids and seeding, our ranking is based on a single question: Which conference is most likely to produce the 2026 national champion?

Hint: It's a close race between the Big Ten and Big 12 for the top spot in the December edition.

Note: "Current bids" represents the number of teams from each conference in the latest Bracketology. "Projected bids" represents the number of bids we forecast a conference could have on Selection Sunday.

5. Big East

November rank: 4

Current bids: 4 (-1 from Nov.)
Projected bids: 3
Average seed: 6.8

Championship caliber: UConn is even better than we projected heading into the season. St. John's isn't, at least not yet. And the aggregate Big East picture is less than promising. It's conceivable that only the Huskies and Red Storm make the NCAA tournament, which would net the conference's lowest bid total yet.

Joey Brackets says: The modern Big East has officially evolved from a conference carried by Villanova to one carried by UConn. That boosts the conference's profile when the Huskies reach the first Monday of April but doesn't change its footprint on Selection Sunday. Seton Hall's pleasant emergence isn't enough to make up for lackluster nonconference slates for Nova, Creighton, Xavier and Providence. And this will be the last time Marquette is mentioned for a long while.

Game of the year: UConn at St. John's on Feb. 6 (8 p.m. ET)

4. ACC

November rank: 5

Current bids: 8 (+3 from Nov.)
Projected bids: 8
Average seed: 5.9

Championship caliber: Duke remains the most obvious national championship contender, but soon-to-be-healthy archrival North Carolina has joined Louisville among ACC teams with Final Four potential. We also like Virginia as a sleeper.

Joey Brackets says: The ACC bounce-back is real. Any projection in which the conference doubles its NCAA output from a season ago will be received happily by anyone who felt slighted by pundits like yours truly the past several seasons.

Game of the year: Duke at Louisville on Jan. 6 (7 p.m. ET)

3. SEC

November rank: 2

Current bids: 9 (-2 from Nov.)
Projected bids: 9
Average seed: 5.3

Championship caliber: Unlike a season ago, when the SEC would have been hard-pressed to not produce the national champion, there is no certain title contender in an otherwise deep and ferocious conference. It boasts both quality and quantity, just not at the same elite level as 2024-25.

Joey Brackets says: The lower probability of generating a champion doesn't mean there aren't a half-dozen SEC teams that could make the Final Four, including we-should-have-seen-it-coming Vanderbilt. There just isn't a clear favorite or even a "probable" to do the deed, akin to the position the Big Ten has been in on multiple occasions over the past few seasons.

Game of the year: Alabama at Vanderbilt on Jan. 7 (9 p.m. ET)

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Highlight: No. 13 Vanderbilt stuns Memphis in overtime thriller

Duke Miles powers the offense with 22 points and Tyler Tanner puts up 16 as the Commodores outlast the Tigers in overtime to secure the 77-70 victory.

2. Big Ten

November rank: 1

Current bids: 10 (-1 from Nov.)
Projected bids: 10
Average seed: 5.3

Championship caliber: If we sent the top two Big Ten teams (Michigan and Purdue) and the top two Big 12 teams (Arizona and Iowa State) to the Final Four right now, would anyone outside of Durham or Storrs complain? Put another way: If someone wants to give me those four against the field, I'm all ears.

Joey Brackets says: I won't victory lap my preseason national champion prediction of Michigan for at least another month, but the margin between the Big Ten and Big 12 for the No. 1 spot in this month's ranking is razor thin. The Big Ten loses out ever so slightly because it has a worse (and larger) bottom. I also can't get Iowa State's 81-58 thrashing of Purdue at Mackey Arena out of my mind.

Game of the year: Michigan at Purdue on Feb. 17 (6:30 p.m. ET)

1. Big 12

November rank: 3

Current bids: 9 (8 in Nov.)
Projected bids: 9
Average seed: 5.2

Championship caliber: The Big 12 currently holds two projected No. 1 seeds (Arizona and Iowa State) and a No. 2 seed (BYU). And that's without mentioning Houston -- a preseason 1-seed by acclamation and losers of just a single one-possession game to date -- or Kansas, which has collected a staggering 11 top seeds under Bill Self. In other words: The Big 12 is loaded.

Joey Brackets says: Prior to the SEC's record-setting storm a season ago, the Big 12 was the No. 1 conference on KenPom for three straight seasons and nine of the past 11. It is on track to regain the top spot in 2026.

Game of the year: Iowa State at Arizona on March 2 (9 p.m. ET)