Survivor pool strategy: Bills, Texans among top options in Week 16

11 hours ago 9

Mackenzie Kraemer
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Dec 17, 2025, 01:00 PM ET

ESPN Eliminator Challenge is one of the most fun games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: pick one team, and as long as they win (or tie), you advance to the next round. If they lose, you are out. The caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice. If you are one of the 0.7% of entries to make it this far, give yourself a pat on the back.

At this point of the season, monitoring the pick availability in your group is critical, especially in a week where one team projects as the overwhelming chalk.

The Houston Texans are being picked in over half of remaining Eliminator entries early in the week. They are available for 58% of Eliminator Challenge entries, but that will vary for each group. The more teams that have the Texans available, the more valuable fading them becomes.

Two weeks ago, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were in a similar situation, getting about 50% of selection against the New Orleans Saints. The Buccaneers lost that game outright. However, while the Buccaneers were 8.5-point favorites, the Texans are laying 14.5, making it much less likely that fading them pays off.

Outside of the Texans, the only other double-digit favorites are the Buffalo Bills. If available, the Bills are the preferred option as big favorites at low selection. If not, there is a significant drop-off in win probability to the next-best teams where it's hard to avoid taking Houston. The Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles and Saints are the best of the rest, but all carry more risk.

Mike Clay's Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet

1. Buffalo Bills (at Cleveland Browns)

The Bills are the second-biggest favorites according to the betting market, Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics. Their selection will be depressed, as only 13% of users still have them available. They host the Jets in Week 18, so there is reason to save them, but there should be other strong options then. The Browns rate out as the worst team in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics, and they are coming off their worst offensive game of the season by EPA per play.

Mike Clay chance to win: 78% (second)
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 80% (second)
DraftKings Sportsbook line: Bills -10 (-575 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge Week 16 Selection: 7% (fourth)
Eliminator Challenge availability: 13%
Remaining schedule: PHI, NYJ

2. Houston Texans (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)

This is the most lopsided matchup in the final three weeks according to Mike Clay's model. It's almost impossible to make a case for how the Raiders can move the ball against the Texans' second-ranked defense. The Raiders have lost 11 of their last 12 games, while the Texans have won six straight. Each of the picks after the Texans are giving up significant win probability, so it is hard to rank them any lower.

Mike Clay chance to win: 93% (first)
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 80% (first)
DraftKings Sportsbook line: Texans -14.5 (-1650 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge Week 16 Selection: 51% (first)
Eliminator Challenge availability: 58%
Remaining schedule: at LAC, IND

3. Detroit Lions (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

While the Lions and Steelers have the same records, ESPN Analytics views the Lions as the second-best team in the NFL, while the Steelers are 18th. The betting market agrees with the gap, as the Lions are the third-biggest favorites this week. The Lions have won 15 straight games after a loss. They are also only 9% available and finish the season with two road games, so they will have low selection and no future value.

Mike Clay chance to win: 69% (5th)
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 66% (5th)
DraftKings Sportsbook line: Lions -7 (-325 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge Week 16 Selection: 1% (8th)
Eliminator Challenge availability: 9%
Remaining schedule: at MIN, at CHI

4. Philadelphia Eagles (at Washington Commanders)

The Commanders have been a great team to fade all season. While they beat the New York Giants last week, they lost eight games in a row prior to that. During that nine-game stretch, they rank last in the NFL in defensive EPA per play. The Eagles have been up and down all season, but against a bad Commanders team, they grade out as one of the biggest favorites of the week, even on the road. Just make sure to look ahead to Week 18 where the Eagles will host the Commanders in their second meeting in three weeks.

Mike Clay chance to win: 70% (fourth)
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 68% (fourth)
DraftKings Sportsbook line: Eagles -6.5 (-310 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge Week 16 Selection: 17% (second)
Eliminator Challenge availability: 41%
Remaining schedule: at BUF, WSH

5. New Orleans Saints (vs New York Jets)

Believe it or not, the Saints are the thirrd-biggest favorites this week according to Mike Clay's model. Over the last three weeks, the Jets rank bottom three in both offensive and defensive EPA per play, while the Saints are 22nd on offense and 10th on defense. The Saints are 3-3 since turning to Tyler Shough with back-to-back wins. ESPN Analytics has a 3.3-point gap between these teams on a neutral field, and with the Saints having home-field, they are a fine team to select.

Mike Clay chance to win: 74% (third)
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 64% (sixth)
DraftKings Sportsbook line: Saints -4.5 (-218 moneyline)
Eliminator Challenge Week 16 Selection: 3% (seventh)
Eliminator Challenge availability: 99%
Remaining schedule: at TEN, at ATL

6. Kansas City Chiefs (at Tennessee Titans)

Last week, the Chiefs opened as 11.5-point favorites on the lookahead line. Now the spread sits at 3.5 after Patrick Mahomes' injury and the Chiefs elimination from playoff contention. However, ESPN Analytics sees value in the Chiefs, ranking them as the third-biggest favorites this week. The Titans are the second-worst team in the NFL by ESPN Analytics and are the only team this season without a home win.