Which side of 'split personality' Scotland will face England?

By

BBC Scotland's chief sports writer

The Scottish rugby mentality is a complex thing. Not everybody gets it. It addles the brain. Fries the senses. Approach with caution - if you must approach at all.

Scotland's relationship with England, and how England perceives that relationship, has layers to it. Head coach Gregor Townsend said the other day that the Calcutta Cup is his team's biggest game of the year, which it is. Captain Sione Tuipulotu chimed with that view on Friday.

The biggest game, but in recent times, not the biggest barometer. This whole picture changed when Townsend took over. His record of four Calcutta Cup wins in a row and five wins in eight - a missed Finn Russell conversion away last season from six in eight - is sensational.

In his newspaper column, external during the week Courtney Lawes, the great England forward of recent vintage, said of Scotland that he would get annoyed if he felt he was going up against a team "that only plays well because it's England".

It was an interesting take on how England view the Scottish resurgence in this fixture. "I have never understood Scotland's mentality that a bad season can be saved by winning the Calcutta Cup," Lawes said.

Certainly in the past, and probably recent past, that was the case. It's not the case anymore. If Scotland were to beat only England in the Six Nations it would be considered an appalling season, not one that was saved by overcoming the Auld Enemy. One win from five - a Calcutta Cup - would put Townsend on the brink of losing his job.

Lawes added: "If Scotland played every week like they do against England they would actually have a really good chance of winning the competition.

"It strikes me as being a major weakness in the Scottish psyche. It holds them back. No wonder they never win anything."

It's tremendous knockabout stuff, but it rather overestimates the scale of the challenge Scotland have faced when playing against England in the Townsend era. Frankly, England haven't been all that good. They've been far from the acid test of Scotland's true worth.

All of these Scotland victories - were they because the Scots raised their game or because England were disorganised defensively, weak mentally and relatively easy prey to some brilliance in Townsend's backline?

Scotland haven't won anything, Lawes is correct. England are not exactly dripping with silverware themselves. They have won one Six Nations in that time. They have finished fifth in the table more often than they've finished first.

France, Ireland and Wales have all won Grand Slams during that period from 2017 since Townsend stepped up. England, for all their resources, haven't won a Slam in a decade and have won only two in the history of the Six Nations.

In the past eight Six Nations they've finished first once, second twice, third twice, fourth once and fifth twice. Beating England has not been akin to climbing Everest.

Maybe it's not about Scotland supposedly playing above themselves, as Lawes and others would argue. Maybe it's been more about England not being good enough.

The fear for Scotland is that head coach Steve Borthwick has now cracked it. Twelve wins in a row, a well drilled team in all departments, excellent leaders, a mighty bench - all the impressions are that the foundations are solid, that the team is less susceptible to the kind of chaos that Scotland will want to inflict on them on Saturday.

Murrayfield should be a huge examination of their new found mettle, though. Tuipulotu shone a bright spotlight on what he calls Scotland's "desperation" ahead of the Calcutta Cup.

Men's Six Nations

Saturday, 14 February at 16:40 GMT

Scottish Gas Murrayfield

The Scotland players and coaches have been pulverised this past week. It wasn't the fact that they lost to Italy that caused such fury, it was the manner of it, the soft-touch defending, the dysfunctional set-piece, the wasted opportunities in attack.

Zero line-breaks is a stat that will stick in the throat until the rugby equivalent of the Heimlich manoeuvre is performed on this Scotland team. That comes in the form of victories. Saturday would be an opportune time to begin. Or else, for their championship, it really is the end.

Tuipulotu's words suggested there's a serious reaction coming at Murrayfield but one of the issues for Scotland is the absence of the X-factor that has won so many of these days before.

In 2024, it was Scotland's ability to get it to the wide channels early that was decisive. Blair Kinghorn was inventive and classy. A Duhan van der Merwe hat-trick ensued. No Duhan this time. No Kinghorn.

The year before it was more Duhan - a solo score from the other end of the world and another at the end that clinched it. The year before that it was Darcy Graham who created one for Ben White and was heavily involved in winning a penalty try in the air off Luke Cowan-Dickie that changed the game. Graham is on the bench, but not in great form.

In 2021, Van der Merwe blasted over for the winning score. Seven tries against England. If the whole thing about Scotland raising their game just for England is overblown, that's emphatically not the case when it comes to the big wing. He saves his best for England. He has become the totem of this game, but he's 24th man on Saturday.

The reality of Van der Merwe is that he's not been himself for close to a year. There is a feeling that England would have loved it had Van der Merwe been selected so that George Ford and Alex Mitchell could pepper him with contestables. The air, and defensive positioning, are not his strong suits.

In the selection of his back three, Townsend erred on the side of caution and form. You can see why, but a gambler would have gone with Van der Merwe in the hope that Scotland can create the kind of unstructured mayhem that could see him reborn. A big risk, sure. But the allure of that potential reward…

The same with Kinghorn, a pedigree athlete, who's not at his best right now. So many of Scotland's moments of magic in the winning run against England have heavily involved players who are not starting or not in the 23. The absence of the unpredictable places more of an onus on Finn Russell to produce a masterclass.

With the machine that is Bath, Russell is playing a tighter game this season than at any other time in his career. His forwards are magnificent and Bath use them effectively. They have aerial threats and that's a big part of their game, too. They can play any which way, but the expansive stuff hasn't been the dominant style. He might want to cut loose on that on Saturday.

Will Scotland win an arm wrestle? Possible, but unlikely. Their best route is to play what is instinctive to them. Not caution to the wind, but ambition and daring and breakneck speed.

Even allowing for no Van der Merwe and no Kinghorn, this team can play. It's mostly Glasgow in Scotland colours. England will respect them. In the autumn, a similar version of this side ran in 17 unanswered points against the All Blacks and 21 unanswered points against Argentina. They lost both games, of course.

This side has a split personality. Which side of their character will we see most on Saturday? There's no telling. Jekyll and Hyde is Steady Eddie by comparison.

There's a reaction coming, you can almost bank on that. How far it takes them against a streetwise England is the great unknown.