ESPN
Jan 15, 2026, 11:15 AM ET
There was much to dissect from a truly wild wild-card weekend. The Chicago Bears coming through with yet another fourth-quarter comeback, the back-and-forth final quarter in the Los Angeles Rams-Carolina Panthers, Buffalo Bills-Jacksonville Jaguars and San Francisco 49ers-Philadelphia Eagles games. And we witnessed the defenses for the New England Patriots and Houston Texans stand tall -- while getting some help from their opponents.
With the exception of the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos, who had byes in the first round, every other playoff team has a game under its belt. So we asked Matt Bowen, Liz Loza, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, Ben Solak and Seth Walder who would be their pick to win the Super Bowl, based on what they've seen, and which team offers the best betting value?
Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Best bet: Bills +650; Best value: Bills +650
Bowen: I'm staying with Buffalo for both picks here. We're getting really good value, plus I see a team with a path to a championship. Josh Allen has the difference-making ability to win the critical game moments. Elite dual-threat traits. And this Bills defense plays with high-end zone discipline. Landmark drops. Eyes. Breaking on the ball. Squeezing the throwing windows and limiting big-play throws down the field. Sean McDermott's team has the profile to win a ring.
Best bet: Rams +320; Best value: Texans +850
Loza: The Rams are the most complete team in football. Matthew Stafford's anticipation, timing and accuracy are buoyed by a dynamic receiving corps and a highly productive backfield. While L.A.'s secondary can be exploited, the team's defensive line can effectively bring the heat, recording an impressive pass rush win rate of 40.4% during the regular season. Additionally, Sean McVay (and a host of his current players) have experience on their side, having hoisted the Lombardi just four years ago.
That said, Houston's defense has proved that it can carry the team to Santa Clara, registering the second-best defensive efficiency rating (68.19%) throughout 2025. C.J. Stroud is far from being a perfect passer, and the loss of Nico Collins in the divisional round will hurt, but Jayden Higgins is a capable replacement and Stroud can manage enough splash plays to keep the offensive competitive. If the axiom is to be believed, defenses win championships and the value presented at +850 odds is too good to pass up.
Best bet: Patriots +600; Best value: Patriots +600
Maldonado: New England has the most complete profile, a top-tier coverage unit paired with elite tackling that shrinks explosive plays and ends drives. That combo travels deep into the playoffs. Offensively, the Patriots are near the top in passing efficiency, and they protect the ball, which matters more than raw explosiveness against playoff defenses. They sustain drives, control field position and don't rely on turnover spikes or broken plays.
Overall, New England matches up cleanly against pressure-heavy teams because its protection schemes and quick plays neutralize rush-first defenses. The Patriots also avoid self-inflicted volatility that sinks talented opponents. At +600, the price shows competence without overpaying for flash. This is a futures wager on repeatable traits and the highest floor remaining.
Best bet: Seahawks +270; Best value: Broncos +700
Moody: The Seahawks remain the betting favorite for a reason. Seattle's defense finished the regular season ranked first in run stop win rate, seventh in pass rush win rate, and top five in both fewest total yards and points allowed. They're also more than capable on offense and now draw a divisional-round matchup against a 49ers team they defeated in Week 18 to clinch the NFC West and the No. 1 seed.
The Broncos, meanwhile, are well rested coming off a bye and enter as the No. 1 seed in the AFC, offering value at these odds. Denver has Bo Nix under center, playmakers like Courtland Sutton and one of the league's most creative offensive minds in head coach Sean Payton. The Broncos' defense led the league with 68 sacks in 2025 and finished third in pass rush win rate, giving them a real chance to surprise bettors.
Best bet: Seahawks +270; Best value: Bears +1600
Solak: Seattle's defense is the best unit remaining in the playoffs on either side of the bracket, and even when the offense has been down, it has still been a good enough unit to find explosives and run out the clock. Sam Darnold's kryptonite -- the Rams' defense -- hasn't been up to par over the past seven or eight games. Seattle also has the clearest path to their conference championship game as 7-point favorites over the 49ers.
The Bears are nearly twice the price of the next-closest team (Texans at +850) and not much shorter than the 49ers (+2000). Chicago gets the Rams at home in a game that should be a shootout, and while their defense isn't strong, it has improved over the back half of the season as they've returned players from injury. This is the mispriced team.
Best bet: Rams +320; Best value: Broncos +700
Walder: Now that the Rams and Seahawks are on level ground once again, I do think Los Angeles is now once again the Super Bowl favorite -- even if it just scraped by against the Panthers. While the past few weeks have not been great for Los Angeles, I think it's important to zoom out a little and look at the wider picture, one in which the Rams and Seahawks were the two best teams this year. But Sam Darnold's cold streak has gone on much longer than the Rams' (Darnold ranks 27th in QBR since Week 11!), so I give the edge to the Rams.
I feel the Broncos are the undervalued team. And you don't need to be totally sold on Bo Nix to bet them, either. In fact, I think this is one of those that -- once they're in the Super Bowl -- we'll look back on as being almost obvious. Yes, the team with the excellent defense, featuring both an exceptional pass rush and superstar cornerback, along with arguably the best offensive line and a Hall of Fame play-caller made it to the Super Bowl. Of course they did.
