Why NBA insiders are all-in on the Spurs: 'Victor breaks all the rules'

The Oklahoma City Thunder concluded their longest road trip of the season -- five games across 10 days -- with a loss to the Boston Celtics on Wednesday night. It was the Thunder's first loss in a month, but the defending champs boarded their jet home with only a two-game lead atop the Western Conference.

That's because the San Antonio Spurs, who also won Wednesday night, are a remarkable 23-2 since Feb. 1, leaving them right on Oklahoma City's heels -- and while also holding the tiebreaker thanks to a 4-1 edge in the season series. Despite their own stellar 15-2 mark since the All-Star break, the Thunder simply can't break away, underscoring one of the biggest questions coaches, scouts, executives and players are asking:

Can a team full of 20-somethings and a coach in his first full season at the helm shock the world?

That doesn't mean just passing OKC in the standings. Or even winning the conference finals. League insiders are wondering if Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs can secure what would be one of the most shocking titles ever, an accomplishment that would buck the entire history of the league.

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Why Wemby and the Spurs are changing minds

Brian Windhorst: I was at a meal before a game last week and watching the Spurs play on TV with a veteran Eastern Conference scout. We watched Wembanyama swat a shot at one end and then beat nearly everyone down the floor and finish the sequence with a dunk.

"They're my favorite now," the scout told ESPN. "I've been thinking a lot about it. His game is going to be even more dominant in the playoffs and every game he's going to get more and more into your head. In Game 1, your players will think about him on some of their shots. By Game 4, they'll be having full-on nightmares."

The scout isn't alone in his view. We kept asking around the league about the Spurs' chances -- and we kept finding believers.

Tim Bontemps: And rightly so. One source after another who I spoke to this week praised the Spurs -- beyond the obvious nightly brilliance Wembanyama provides.

"They're a very good team," an executive whose team has played San Antonio recently said. "They're very well-coached. They're very well put together. The combination of the group of guys they have is impressive.

"And Victor is absolutely unguardable."

Windhorst: The lack of experience is a catchall comment you often hear in the playoffs. But it absolutely matters. Reacting to the ups and downs, understanding the depth of preparation needed and managing fatigue from a long series are qualities that can't be simulated during an 82-game regular season. But...

"Everyone says they don't have experience, but they have a lot more than anyone gives them credit for," one East executive said of the Spurs. "Harrison Barnes and Luke Kornet have championship rings. De'Aaron Fox is one of the league's best clutch players and he's been in the playoffs.

"Do you think Victor is going to be intimidated by the moment? Good luck with that."

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Tim MacMahon and Jay Williams explain why Victor Wembanyama is a top candidate for MVP.

Bontemps: The experience factor always comes up because teams simply do not skip steps when it comes to advancing in the NBA playoffs.

Since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976-77, only the 1977 Portland Trail Blazers and 2008 Celtics went from missing the playoffs to winning the title the next season. But both of those teams aren't great comparisons, as the Celtics traded for veteran Hall of Famers Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen the prior summer, while the Blazers added another Hall of Famer, Maurice Lucas, in the offseason as part of the ABA dispersal draft.

The best historical comp for the Spurs might be the Shaquille O'Neal and Anfernee Hardaway-led Orlando Magic, who went from losing in the first round in 1994 to making the NBA Finals in 1995. Wembanyama is probably the best analog to a young Shaq rocking the rims for the Magic 30 years ago, and Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle are potential future star guards.

But even that team wound up getting swept by Hakeem Olajuwon and the Houston Rockets in the Finals.

"History says it doesn't happen this year, and projects against it," a veteran scout said. "But they're different. [Wembanyama] is different. It goes against all of my historical beliefs, but he's generational."

Windhorst: Let's step back and recognize the Thunder challenge here. Regular-season success means little in the playoffs. Last year, the Celtics dominated the Knicks in the regular season, but no one cared when they went to Boston and got up 2-0. The Thunder have routinely demonstrated their ability to react to pressure and rely on different role players to deliver in playoff series. They're 141-37 including playoffs over the past two seasons. Surely, that has got to be considered here.

"That's fine, but you realize that Victor can take away their biggest weapon," a West coach said. "When games are close Shai [Gilgeous-Alexander] gets to his spot at the elbows and kills you with his midrange jumper or gets you to foul him. Well Victor has a f---ing 8-foot wingspan and he can defend that jumper and the rim at the same time and be far enough away that Shai can't draw contact from him.

"Shai says he's got the answers to the test. Well he's right, but Victor breaks all the rules."

One more thing that was pointed out to me:

"Let's say Denver gets the No. 4 seed," a West executive said. "That's what our internal projections have. What happens if that's a seven-game [series] again? That's not the greatest draw for OKC. [The Nuggets] could wear them out even if they beat them again."

Bontemps: It's also worth pointing out another potential issue. While the Spurs have massive positional size across the board, their biggest Achilles heel in the playoffs could wind up being their lack of shooting.

Their three dynamic guards -- De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and rookie Dylan Harper -- are all below average 3-point shooters. When teams get into the playoffs and get a chance to game plan for San Antonio, expect them to double off Castle, in particular, and force him to make shots.

Those are the kinds of things that, across an 82-game regular season, don't come up too often. But in the heart of a playoff series, dealing with and overcoming those adjustments can be the difference between advancing and falling short.

What's next after an eventful board of governors meeting?

Bontemps: This week's conclave of team owners in New York City focused on league expansion and the flood of money and jobs coming into the NBA. But the biggest hot-button issue is the 65-game rule for end-of-season awards in the wake of Detroit Pistons star Cade Cunningham suffering a collapsed lung that removed him from the MVP and All-NBA races but should have him back in time for the playoffs. (The 65-game rule does have an exception for season-ending injuries, but only if a player has reached 62 games played. Cunningham is at 60.)

There has been a lot of grumbling about the rule in recent days. The National Basketball Players Association, which agreed to the rule when it was implemented in 2023, is planning a counterproposal. Agent Jeff Schwartz, Cunningham's representative from Excel Sports Management, and some media members have been clamoring for the rule change.

But something has flown under the radar this season: The rule is working.

As Silver pointed out Wednesday, star participation is up after years of negative headlines about the league's highest-profile players sitting out games.

"I think the 65-game rule has obviously had unintended consequences and needs to be looked at," an East executive said. "But can we stop acting like it wasn't collectively bargained for? It works to dissuade otherwise healthy rest."

For all of the complaints about the rule over the past few days, one thing seems certain: It won't be changing this summer, or anytime soon.

"The thing people miss about this is that it's about achievement," another executive said. "Part of that achievement is making it through the season healthy and being lucky enough to avoid something unfortunate happening.

"I don't think setting a bar of playing 80% of the games to get there is unfair."

Windhorst: Silver also made it clear it isn't 100% guaranteed there will be expansion or that the league adds Seattle and Las Vegas. But after talking to several owners about expansion over the past six months, it's virtually assured that franchises will be added in both cities.

There were owners who were firmly against expansion two to three years ago who have changed their viewpoints. Why? Regardless of what anyone might say or analyze based on the economy, world events or the league's popularity, the feedback the league is getting on the interest in expansion in the U.S. and in Europe for that coming satellite league is said to be robust. The league is telling potential stakeholders and potential bidders that they have groups lined up to make bids everywhere from Vegas to Milan.

The league believes there's an ocean of capital ready to flow into the league, that in fact billionaires and -- in the case of Europe -- sovereign wealth funds, will be competing to buy in. Any concern about downsides, such as the dilution of talent or increase in tanking, takes a backseat to the windfalls the 30 team owners are in line to get. Silver and his lieutenants are not infallible, but when it comes to handling big-money matters, their batting average is very high.

Bontemps: Where the league's batting average is quite low is on lottery reform and on its efforts to curb tanking.

Since enacting the original version of the lottery in an attempt to curb tanking 41 years ago, the NBA has gone through several variations, only for the league's race to the bottom to repeatedly come up as a controversial topic.

Silver has tried to do something about it twice. He initially failed more than a decade ago after becoming commissioner to enact lottery changes before succeeding in flattening the lottery odds ahead of the 2019 draft.

That decision has failed in the eyes of sources around the league. A decade ago, four or five teams were leaning into the act of tanking. Now we are annually seeing eight to 10 teams shutting things down after the All-Star break to try to improve their lottery chances and putting out an increasingly poor product.

In private conversations, no one -- denizens of NBA headquarters, fans or members of any of the 30 teams -- is happy with the current setup. That's why Silver has repeatedly said there are extensive changes coming to the lottery system ahead of 2026-27.

But several league and team officials, publicly and privately, have agreed there is not a clean simple fix to this issue. It will be interesting to see what will come out of the special session of the board of governors in May, when the league has said it will unveil any changes to prepare teams for next season.

It was striking to hear Silver say Wednesday that he's an incrementalist and that fundamental changes to the incentive structure need to happen -- and to say both of those things in the same answer, and even to bring up potential CBA changes down the road to try to fix the problem.

So while Silver did say the league is going to "fix this -- full stop," doing so is going to be more difficult.

Health continues to define the East playoff race

Bontemps: While the absence of Cunningham and the continued comeback for Jayson Tatum (he had 19 points,12 rebounds, seven assists and three steals in Boston's win over Oklahoma City on Wednesday) have taken the spotlight, the injury updates across the conference don't end there.

Max Strus finally made his long-awaited return to the Cleveland Cavaliers, giving them an extra boost on the wing as they try to get themselves whole ahead of the postseason. The Miami Heat are trying to figure out how to get Norman Powell and Tyler Herro working together after a season full of injuries in South Florida, a process that's had plenty of speed bumps.

And in Philadelphia, Paul George and Joel Embiid returned Wednesday in an emphatic home victory against the Chicago Bulls. George said his surgically repaired knee feels great, and he and Embiid combined for 63 points in 54 minutes Wednesday, albeit against a tanking team.

"It's remarkable that Embiid can come back and, for the most part, look like he hasn't missed any time," a West scout said. "It shows just how talented he is."

And in even more positive injury news, Tyrese Maxey and Kelly Oubre Jr. are expected to join them soon.

When Maxey suffered a finger injury on March 7 that sidelined him for an extended period, Oubre and Embiid were out with injuries and George was in the middle of a 25-game suspension. At the time, everyone in Philadelphia was privately resigned to the plan of simply avoiding a slide to 10th before the end of the regular season, hoping to have everyone back healthy for the play-in and try to win their way in and see what happens.

Things look remarkably different heading into April. Thanks to struggles from the Magic and Heat, in particular, Philadelphia finds itself in seventh, just one game out of fifth in the East standings.

The "if healthy" tag will remain firmly affixed to the Sixers roster. But the 76ers believe they can compete with any team when whole.

"If we have our guys," one 76ers team official said, "we like our chances."

"They could beat Cleveland," the West scout said. "[The Cavs] haven't had Jarrett Allen, and he was playing really well with James Harden, so that changes things, but they feel the most susceptible [among the top four in the East]."

Windhorst: The Cavs are hoping to get Allen back this weekend after he has missed 10 games with knee tendinitis after getting Strus back after he missed the first 67 games of the season recovering from a Jones fracture in his left foot. In theory, the team should have its intended starting lineup in place for the postseason at long last.

The Cavs are 14-4 since trading for Harden but that number is boosted by soft sections of the schedule and covers their biggest underlying problem right now, which is their defense. Since their trade deadline moves, which also included acquiring Dennis Schroder and Keon Ellis from the Sacramento Kings, the Cavs rank a quite disappointing 19th in defense. They've been awesome offensively, ranking third, but coach Kenny Atkinson went public with his concerns after a victory over the struggling Magic this week.

"Allen coming back will help them, but it's more than that," an East scout said. "They don't seem to have one issue, different things pop up. Sometimes they're lax in transition defense, sometimes they have games where they have no physicality and will just die on screens and sometimes they will look like they're running in mud trying to get out to shooters."

The Cavs have the East's second-easiest remaining schedule but wins and losses are less important than their form as they enter the postseason with high expectations.

"I'm sure Kenny is hoping for them to get some rhythm at full strength," the scout said. "They still have time."