Why the East race is full of high stakes: 'Not a lot of honeymoons going on'

Much attention has been paid to the top of the NBA's Western Conference this season, and deservedly so.

The defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder started 24-1, have the league's reigning Most Valuable Player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (he's a favorite for his second award) and are hoping to become the NBA's first repeat champion since the Golden State Warriors in 2018.

The San Antonio Spurs, one of the surprise teams, are on Oklahoma City's heels in the standings. Led by third-year phenom Victor Wembanyama and second-year breakout star Stephon Castle, they have defeated the Thunder four times in five meetings this season. The Denver Nuggets, led by three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic and first-time All-Star Jamal Murray, have a championship résumé that gives them a legitimate chance at another deep playoff run.

All this has overshadowed what's going on in the Eastern Conference, where things are wide open in a way we rarely see in the NBA.

"I think there's probably six to seven of us who believe all we need is good health at the right time and we can go on a run," one Eastern Conference general manager, whose team is currently in the playoff picture, told ESPN. "All of the teams in the playoffs are going to be flawed and all of them are going to have upside."

That much parity leads to lots of opportunity and lots of questions. The reality is when you speak with coaches, scouts and executives, there isn't a clear favorite. This may frustrate the Detroit Pistons, who have firmly held the No. 1 seed since November, but that's the prevailing sentiment.

It also means that there isn't an obvious excuse for teams with expectations if they are unable to make a deep postseason run. And when that is the case, it means change could be coming.

"There's two to three teams that are going to have some real fallout if they don't make the conference finals," a team president said. "That's the case every year, I know, but there's not a lot of honeymoons going on in the East."

With roughly 25% of the season remaining, the four teams atop the East -- the Pistons, Boston Celtics, New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers -- and one potential spoiler, could all make noise come playoff time if things break the right way.

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Detroit Pistons

It's been a second straight remarkable season for Detroit. Two seasons ago, the Pistons lost 28 consecutive games en route to a 14-win season. Last year, they added 30 wins to that total. Now, Friday's showdown at Little Caesars Arena against the Cavaliers (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) will give the Pistons a chance to match last year's 44-win total before February ends.

Cade Cunningham has become a full-fledged MVP candidate. Jalen Duren bet on himself in extension negotiations in the fall and deservedly became an All-Star. J.B. Bickerstaff is firmly in the Coach of the Year conversation for a second consecutive season. And the Pistons are one of two East teams, along with Boston, that reside inside the top 10 in offensive and defensive rating, one of the typical markers to determine true championship contenders.

"I think they're really good," a West executive said of the Pistons. "I think they're ahead of schedule and trying to react to that."

With that sort of résumé, it doesn't sound like the East is wide open. The Pistons check several boxes that come with being a true threat. So why aren't they seen that way? There are a few reasons, beginning with their lack of playoff experience and success. The franchise hasn't won a playoff series since 2008, and teams typically don't go from zero to 100 in the playoffs without experiencing setbacks along the way.

"Some teams are a certain team in the regular season and then have another gear in the playoffs," the executive said. "I don't know if they have another gear to get to. When everyone plays hard in the playoffs, does that get mitigated some?

"I think they're the favorites, but the gap is close."

Monday's game against the Spurs highlighted issues that could keep Detroit from going deep into the postseason. Cunningham had arguably his worst game of the season, going 5-for-26, and Detroit's offense ground to a halt against smothering defense from Wembanyama and his teammates.

The games against San Antonio and Oklahoma City this week also highlighted another challenge, which is 3-point shooting. The Spurs and Thunder combined for 20 more 3s than Detroit in those two games. Losing the 3-point differential is a concern; the Pistons are 28th in the league in 3s per game.

"I don't trust them at all," a West assistant coach said. "They have no one besides Cade to attack. You can make any of their other guys try to beat you, and they will have a hard time."

Boston Celtics

From the start of training camp, Boston and coach Joe Mazzulla rejected the idea that this would be a gap year. Despite lowered expectations after losing Jayson Tatum to a torn Achilles, trading Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday and losing Al Horford in free agency, the Celtics are 38-20 and join the Thunder as the only teams inside the top seven in offensive and defensive rating (second and seventh, respectively).

"They play hard every minute of every game," a West scout said. "Because if they don't play hard every minute, Joe [Mazzulla] calls time out and tells them about it. But playing hard will only get you so far. They have a talent disadvantage compared to the other top teams, at least until Tatum returns. The more talented teams usually win in the playoffs."

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Tatum's potential return dominates every conversation about the Celtics, but the fact that Boston has had this sort of season without their superstar forward has earned universal praise. Jaylen Brown is averaging career highs in points (29.1), rebounds (7.1) and assists (4.8) and is being endorsed for MVP by LeBron James. Mazzulla has coaxed developmental success stories throughout the roster, from starting center Neemias Queta to wings Baylor Scheierman, Jordan Walsh and rookie guard Hugo Gonzalez.

"They know exactly who they are," the assistant coach said. "They have great mental toughness. They are decisive and there's no second-guessing."

But do they have enough to go far in the postseason, potentially returning to the Finals for the third time in six seasons without Tatum? That question is why every conversation about the Celtics eventually circles back to what they can be and how much Tatum will be a part of it.

"They're already awesome without Jayson," the assistant coach said, "and you add him for 20 minutes a game, or more? They're the clear pick to me."

New York Knicks

Lofty expectations were set last spring, when the Knicks fired coach Tom Thibodeau after reaching the conference finals for the first time in 25 years. They were then doubled down upon by owner James Dolan last month, when he stated his expectations in a rare interview with WFAN radio.

"I'd say we want to get to the Finals and we should win the Finals," Dolan said. "This is sports; anything can happen. Getting to the Finals, we absolutely have to do. Winning the Finals, we should do."

The Knicks entered the season as co-favorites to win the East with Cleveland for a reason. This is a roster with plenty of talent, with All-Stars Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, versatile wings OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart, the league's best offensive rebounder in Mitchell Robinson and solid depth off the bench.

"The Knicks have the best team," a rival East head coach said. "I don't know if they'll play their best when it matters, but they have the best roster in my opinion."

The Knicks are on pace to win at least 50 games for a third straight season, something that hasn't happened since Pat Riley coached New York in the 1990s. However, things have never felt settled around the Knicks all season. Towns has been openly frustrated with his offensive role since training camp. They've been plagued by inconsistency. And for criticisms of Thibodeau's intransigence, they have looked like a team lacking a clear identity for stretches in its first campaign under Mike Brown.

"The situation with Towns has got to be driving them crazy," an advance scout said. "But I'll tell you what, everyone bears some blame. It's on KAT, it's on Mike [Brown], it's on Brunson. And they all need to work together to get more consistency because that's a huge key for them."

Cleveland Cavaliers

Things completely changed a few weeks ago when the Cavaliers made the stunning decision to break up their "Core Four," trading Darius Garland to the LA Clippers for James Harden, a 36-year-old former MVP and future first ballot Hall of Famer.

That move, coupled with sending De'Andre Hunter to the Sacramento Kings for Dennis Schroder and Keon Ellis a few days earlier, has given Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson more depth and versatility to work with on the roster and has suddenly turned Cleveland into the threat it was expected to be before the season. Now the team that was 17-16 and in eighth in the East in late December is two games back of Boston for second.

"Adjusting to James Harden midyear is a tough thing to ask your team to do, especially when their offense has been pretty good the last few years," an East executive said. "The way Harden plays can benefit everyone on the floor, but it's an adjustment for everyone on the floor. They seem really bought in and that's a big part of the challenge."

Harden quickly identified center Jarrett Allen and guard Sam Merrill as two players who can play off him effectively. Harden started throwing lobs to Allen almost instantly, and Merrill, who is used to working off the ball to generate space, has benefited from the gravity Harden creates, including scoring a career-high 32 points in Harden's home debut earlier this month.

Harden has also connected with forward Dean Wade, praising his ability to guard every position at 6-foot-9. Wade has had success this season guarding smaller players, including several good performances against Brunson. Atkinson has moved Wade in and out of the starting lineup all season but is leaning toward making him work in a big starting lineup as at small forward. Atkinson is also considering lineups when Wade plays center with Allen and Evan Mobley on the bench.

And for all the changes the Cavaliers have made, they still must decide whether they'll get enough stops with Harden, Donovan Mitchell and their current crop of wings against the best competition in the playoffs.

"I'm more encouraged by this version of the Cavs than a month ago," the West executive said, "but they still have a glaring weakness on the perimeter defensively. If you're banking on Max Strus and Dean Wade to be your defenders, you're still dealing with the same problem: two guards, two bigs and defensive issues. But Harden is a big upgrade for this stretch run."

The long shot: Philadelphia 76ers

If any team is capable of crashing the party at the top of the conference, many league insiders pointed to the 76ers, who are currently clinging to the sixth spot in the East, a half-game ahead of the Orlando Magic.

Between the combination of All-NBA guard Tyrese Maxey and former MVP center Joel Embiid, the 76ers have the top-end talent to be a significant threat in a playoff series. However, that relies heavily on their health, and there is no bigger if in the NBA than Embiid. Meanwhile, with Paul George suspended until late March, the 76ers' roster is generally lacking in size outside of Embiid's presence.

"They are the wild card to me," the assistant coach said. "They could easily lose 4-0 in Round 1, but if they are healthy, Embiid and Maxey are hard matchups for any of these teams."

The 76ers have beaten the Celtics and Knicks twice this season but are a combined 0-5 against the Cavaliers and Pistons.

"With the firepower they have, they deserve a mention," the West executive said. "Maxey is awesome and I could see in a series he gets hot and Embiid has it going and it presents a big time mismatch. That's a different element than anyone else has, and while they are a distant fifth, it's why I also can't totally rule them out."