Centrist liberals take shock lead in Dutch election, exit poll says

The centrist liberals under Rob Jetten have taken a shock lead in the Dutch election, according to the main exit poll, two years after his party languished in sixth place in the last vote.

Jetten staged a remarkable campaign in recent weeks, and the Ipsos I&O exit poll suggests his D66 liberals have won 27 seats, two more than anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders who won the last election.

The final result is too close to call, even though Dutch exit polls are generally considered reliable.

Three other parties are close behind, including the conservative liberals, the left-wing Green-Labour party and the Christian Democrats.

Wilders led the polls throughout the election campaign, but after he pulled the plug on his own coalition in June in a row over asylum and migration, all the mainstream leaders made clear they did not wish to work with him again.

Jetten's party, meanwhile, staged a highly successful campaign, capitalising on his polished performances during TV debates. The fact the 38-year-old liberal leader had appeared in a game show during the campaign added to his profile.

The conservative liberals of Dilan Yesilgöz were also heading for a successful night in third place and a likely place in a future Jetten-led coalition.

Going into Wednesday's election, voters knew the result would be on a knife-edge, as five parties were in the running to win. Wilders had won 37 seats in November 2023, but this time the electorate were clearly put off by the realisation that he could not form another coalition.

The exit poll also spelt bad news for the GreenLeft-Labour party of former European Commissioner Frans Timmermans, who had long been second in the polls and is now set to come fourth.

"Better times lie ahead," he promised his supporters late on Wednesday.

There was palpable excitement as party supporters gathered for the results at a hall in Leiden, a city between Amsterdam and The Hague. A second exit poll, half an hour after voting ended at 21:30 (20:30 GMT) confirmed the initial projection.

"It was a campaign of optimism, it shows the Dutch are tired of two years of standstill, we recognise big challenges and we want progress on those," said D66 supporter Eline. "It shows the Dutch are craving a prime minister who is able to unite the country and tackle the major challenges our country and the world are facing."

This election was partly fought on migration and overcrowded asylum centres, but the biggest issue for voters was the chronic housing shortage of almost 400,000 homes, in a population of 18 million.

Jetten's party has said it will build 10 cities as part of its plan to tackle the crisis.

Another potential coalition partner for the liberals is the Christian Democrats, who only two years ago looked down and out with just a handful of seats. Now they are projected to win 19.

"What a fantastic result - two years ago we could not have dared to dream of this," CDA leader Henri Bontenbal told supporters as they chanted his name.